Juan Pablo II College
vs
Deportivo Garcilaso
Primera División prediction
Our model says: Juan Pablo II College 2–1 Deportivo Garcilaso
The model makes it 36% Juan Pablo II College, 28% draw, 36% Deportivo Garcilaso — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Juan Pablo II College 1.41, Deportivo Garcilaso 1.41.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.
A tight game: Juan Pablo II College and Deportivo Garcilaso are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Juan Pablo II College's rating is built from 69 Primera División (Peru) matches and Deportivo Garcilaso's from 68, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Juan Pablo II College are 12th on 41 points from 33 games; Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th on 55 points from 33 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- Juan Pablo II College have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FBC Melgar.
- Deportivo Garcilaso have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Comerciantes Unidos.
- Last 3 meetings: Deportivo Garcilaso 3 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Deportivo Garcilaso 4–1 Juan Pablo II College.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Has the model earned this number?
Juan Pablo II College at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso
Juan Pablo II College
Primera División
- L1-2away to FBC Melgar7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Alianza Atletico31 October 2026
- W2-0Sport Huancayo27 October 2026
- L0-3away to Universitario25 October 2026
- W2-0Sport Boys17 October 2026
Deportivo Garcilaso
Primera División
- D0-0Comerciantes Unidos8 November 2026
- W3-2away to UTC Cajamarca2 November 2026
- L2-3away to Alianza Atletico28 October 2026
- W4-1Club Deportivo Los Chankas25 October 2026
- L2-4away to FBC Melgar17 October 2026
What these results say
- Deportivo Garcilaso scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Garcilaso conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Deportivo Garcilaso had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Peru Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 41 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 50 | 35 | +15 | 55 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Juan Pablo II College vs Deportivo Garcilaso
- 30 May 2026Deportivo Garcilaso 4–1 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
- 13 October 2025Juan Pablo II College 0–1 Deportivo GarcilasoPrimera División
- 25 May 2025Deportivo Garcilaso 4–0 Juan Pablo II CollegePrimera División
Leading scorers: Juan Pablo II College and Deportivo Garcilaso
Juan Pablo II College
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.
Deportivo Garcilaso
GoalsAssists
- L. da Silva114
- C. Olivares102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Deportivo Garcilaso (4th, with Juan Pablo II College 12th), while our numbers lean to Juan Pablo II College. Juan Pablo II College rate 0.61 in attack and 1.72 in defence, Deportivo Garcilaso 0.68 and 1.42 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juan Pablo II College the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Juan Pablo II College against 1.41 for Deportivo Garcilaso. Juan Pablo II College's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.72 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.42 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
How the model reaches 36% for Juan Pablo II College to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Juan Pablo II College to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Juan Pablo II College's ratings take away 4 points and Deportivo Garcilaso's ratings take away 4 points, which lands on the published 36%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Juan Pablo II College's ratings40%−4
- Deportivo Garcilaso's ratings36%−4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Juan Pablo II College at home · Deportivo Garcilaso away
League matches only, Primera División, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: Juan Pablo II College 33, Deportivo Garcilaso 33.
Juan Pablo II College score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Deportivo Garcilaso have let in 10 there.
Deportivo Garcilaso score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Juan Pablo II College have let in 16 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.