Atlas vs Puebla Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Atlas 4-3 Puebla.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Atlas, 26% draw, 23% Puebla — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Atlas at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlas vs Puebla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12C. VargasG
- 3J. SanchezD
- 28M. CapassoD
- 19A. FriasD
- 5J. RodriguezD
- 15P. RamirezM
- 18E. MontielM
- 20K. ZenonM
- 10L. EstevesM
- 9F. MonzonF
- 8R. MmaeeF
- 22A. SanchezG
- 16M. ValenzuelaD
- 13G. AguirreD
- 44J. SanchezD
- 26A. RochaM
- 6E. ZaldivarM
- 27V. H. Rios De AlbaM
- 23S. HernandezM
- 203J. MartinF
- 28D. GutierrezG
- 12I. MorenoD
- 5F. AlmadaD
- 4J. VargasD
- 7F. MonarrezD
- 16A. RamirezM
- 27B. GarnicaM
- 24A. OrganistaM
- 14E. ArmentaM
- 8O. F. Moreno VillegasM
- 9L. HernandezF
- 33J. RodriguezG
- 15O. VillaD
- 20J. R. Pachuca MartinezD
- 6J. DiazD
- 10M. TomasM
- 3A. HerreraM
- 34Lucas CamiloM
- 26K. VelascoF
- 19I. MaestroF
Form going into Atlas vs Puebla
Atlas
Liga MX
- L2-5Club America22 October 2026
- W2-0away to Necaxa17 October 2026
Puebla
Liga MX
- L1-4Monterrey22 October 2026
- D0-0away to Club Tijuana17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Atlas | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlas vs Puebla
Atlas and Puebla have met 7 times in the records we hold, Atlas has won 5 of them to Puebla's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Atlas won the last one 4–3 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 14 |
| Puebla | 1 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 32 goals, an average of 4.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Liga MXAtlas 4–3 Puebla - 10 Jul 2026
Friendlies ClubsAtlas 3–4 Puebla - 10 Jan 2026
Liga MXAtlas 1–0 Puebla - 12 Jul 2025
Liga MXPuebla 2–3 Atlas - 15 Feb 2025
Liga MXAtlas 3–2 Puebla - 20 Jul 2024
Liga MXPuebla 1–2 Atlas - 9 Mar 2024
Liga MXPuebla 2–2 Atlas
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Atlas' attack rates 26% above Puebla's, and Puebla concede 7% fewer than Atlas. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Atlas and Puebla
Atlas
GoalsAssists
- F. Monzón51
Puebla
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atlas beat Puebla 4–3. The model had made a win for Atlas its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: F. Monzon 1' for Atlas, L. Hernandez 20' for Puebla, J. Sanchez (own goal) 60' for Puebla, K. Zenon 63' for Atlas, J. Martin 68' for Atlas, J. Martin 79' for Atlas, O. F. Moreno Villegas 84' for Puebla. Sent off: A. Ramirez (Puebla) 78'. On expected goals it finished 1.30–1.05.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Atlas a 74.5% chance to finish in the top eight: 87.5% after a win, 66.2% after a draw, 51.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 87.5%, 13 points higher than before the match.
For Puebla the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 5.5% going in: 17.2% after a win, 3.6% after a draw, 1.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.2%, 4.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Atlas v Puebla has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is Atlas's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Atlas win51%▲ +2
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Puebla win23%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.