Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Monterrey 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Monterrey, 27% draw, 35% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 2.63, 3.70 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Monterrey at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. AndradaG
- 2R. ChávezD
- 5F. AmbrízD
- 4V. GuzmánD
- 3G. ArteagaD
- 18Cesar Garza CantuM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 9D. RossiF
- 99H. CuypersF
- 8Óliver TorresM
- 13C. SalcedoD
- 244Paxon Levi Ruffin TamezM
- 30J. RodríguezM
- 10L. OrellanoF
- 33S. MedinaD
- 22L. CárdenasG
- 14É. AguirreM
- 19A. AcevesD
- 1J. RangelG
- 23D. AguirreD
- 16L. ReyD
- 3D. CampilloD
- 37R. LedezmaM
- 28R. GonzálezM
- 6O. GoveaM
- 5B. GonzálezM
- 25R. AlvaradoM
- 30Santiago SandovalM
- 17R. MarínF
- 33J. CarrilloM
- 14H. CamberosM
- 182L. CalderonM
- 19K. CastañedaM
- 56Á. ChávezD
- 57J. HernándezF
- 46C. HernandezD
- 59C. IndaM
- 13Óscar WhalleyG
Form going into Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas
Monterrey
Liga MX
- W4-1away to Puebla22 October 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
Liga MX
- W1-0Necaxa21 October 2026
- D1-1Tigres UANL17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Monterrey | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 24 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guadalajara Chivas vs Monterrey
Guadalajara Chivas and Monterrey have met 7 times in the records we hold, Guadalajara Chivas has won 4 of them to Monterrey's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Guadalajara Chivas won the last one 1–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 |
| Monterrey | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 13 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Liga MXMonterrey 0–1 Guadalajara Chivas - 22 Mar 2026
Liga MXMonterrey 2–3 Guadalajara Chivas - 8 Nov 2025
Liga MXGuadalajara Chivas 4–2 Monterrey - 6 Apr 2025
Liga MXMonterrey 3–1 Guadalajara Chivas - 29 Sep 2024
Liga MXGuadalajara Chivas 1–1 Monterrey - 31 Mar 2024
Liga MXMonterrey 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas - 3 Sep 2023
Liga MXGuadalajara Chivas 1–2 Monterrey
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Guadalajara Chivas' attack rates 5% above Monterrey's, and Guadalajara Chivas concede 27% fewer than Monterrey. That gives Guadalajara Chivas the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| Monterrey | 0.81 | 1.37 |
Leading scorers: Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos73
- H. Cuypers61
- D. Rossi53
Guadalajara Chivas
No player in Liga MX's leading scorers — 26 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Guadalajara Chivas won 1–0 at Monterrey. The model had leaned towards a win for Monterrey at 38% and given a win for Guadalajara Chivas 35%. The goal: Roberto Alvarado 9' for Guadalajara Chivas. Sent off: Orbelín Pineda (Monterrey) 90', Matías Jesús Almeyda (Monterrey) 90+9'. On expected goals it finished 1.71–1.32.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Monterrey a 70.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 87.5% after a win, 68.8% after a draw, 55.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.8%, 15.1 points lower than before the match.
For Guadalajara Chivas the question was the chance to finish top of the Apertura, 5.6% going in: 10.6% after a win, 4.2% after a draw, 1.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.6%, 5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 27% / 35%: the biggest move is Monterrey's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Monterrey win38%▲ +4
- Draw27%=
- Guadalajara Chivas win35%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.