Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Pumas UNAM 1-1 Tigres UANL.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Pumas UNAM, 27% draw, 29% Tigres UANL — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Pumas UNAM at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LópezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5Rubén DuarteD
- 2P. BennevendoD
- 21U. AntunaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 10C. HuertaM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 23JuninhoF
- 77Á. AnguloD
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 34Á. AzuajeD
- 14L. HerreraF
- 35P. LaraG
- 24T. LeoneD
- 15I. LunaM
- 30Santiago López LópezF
- 22A. MedinaF
- 1N. GuzmánG
- 14J. GarzaD
- 15A. FrancoD
- 33R. GuerreroD
- 19M. LaínezD
- 8F. GorriaránM
- 5C. AraújoM
- 16D. LainezM
- 11J. BrunettaM
- 30D. SánchezM
- 17R. AguirreF
- 192E. J. Villavicencio AvilaM
- 6J. VigónM
- 25F. RodríguezG
- 21R. MonrealF
- 22G. MartínezF
- 32V. LoroñaD
- 77O. HerreraF
- 9E. GómezF
- 29J. ContrerasF
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX
- L0-2away to Santos Laguna22 October 2026
- W2-1away to Atlante FC17 October 2026
Tigres UANL
Liga MX
- L0-2Leon21 October 2026
- D1-1away to Guadalajara Chivas17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL
Pumas UNAM and Tigres UANL have met 7 times in the records we hold, Tigres UANL has won 2 of them to Pumas UNAM's 1, with 4 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Pumas UNAM on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas UNAM | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| Tigres UANL | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Liga MXPumas UNAM 1–1 Tigres UANL - 15 Jan 2026
Liga MXTigres UANL 0–1 Pumas UNAM - 21 Sep 2025
Liga MXPumas UNAM 1–1 Tigres UANL - 20 Apr 2025
Liga MXTigres UANL 2–1 Pumas UNAM - 1 Sep 2024
Liga MXPumas UNAM 1–3 Tigres UANL - 4 Feb 2024
Liga MXTigres UANL 2–2 Pumas UNAM - 11 Dec 2023
Liga MXTigres UANL 1–1 Pumas UNAM
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Pumas UNAM's attack rates 19% above Tigres UANL's, and Tigres UANL concede 5% fewer than Pumas UNAM. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Pumas UNAM | 0.82 | 1.29 |
| Tigres UANL | 0.69 | 1.22 |
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Tigres UANL
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Tigres UANL
GoalsAssists
- J. Brunetta94
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pumas UNAM and Tigres UANL drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Pumas UNAM at 44% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Robert Morales 56' for Pumas UNAM, Juan Brunetta 76' for Tigres UANL. On expected goals it finished 2.27–0.84.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pumas UNAM these chances to finish in the top eight: 34.7% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 7.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 12.7%.
For Tigres UANL the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 18.6% going in: 4.0% after a win, 17.4% after a draw, 27.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.4%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.