Coventry vs Sunderland Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Coventry 3-1 Sunderland.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Coventry, 29% draw, 36% Sunderland — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sunderland at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Coventry vs Sunderland
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 19C. RushworthG
- 27M. van EwijkD
- 12S. MfuniD
- 2E. PinnockD
- 3J. DasilvaD
- 8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
- 29V. TorpM
- 7T. SakamotoM
- 5J. RudoniM
- 34Y. GbohoM
- 14T. AwoniyiF
- 9E. SimmsF
- 38G. HamerM
- 10E. Mason-ClarkM
- 6M. GrimesM
- 22J. LatibeaudiereD
- 20K. Kesler-HaydenD
- 25D. BentleyG
- 23B. Thomas-AsanteF
- 49S. CherifF
- 22R. RoefsG
- 32T. HumeD
- 13L. O'NienD
- 15O. AldereteD
- 17ReinildoD
- 27N. SadikiM
- 34G. XhakaM
- 11C. RiggM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 18W. IsidorF
- 31M. EllborgG
- 4K. DansoD
- 12T. MeunierD
- 6D. MethalieD
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 7C. TalbiF
- 39M. FofanaF
- 37J. BiF
Form going into Coventry vs Sunderland
Coventry
Premier League
- L0-1Fulham24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Tottenham19 October 2026
- W4-1Newcastle12 October 2026
Sunderland
Premier League
- D0-0Leeds25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bournemouth18 October 2026
- L0-2Brighton10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Coventry vs Sunderland
Coventry and Sunderland have met 7 times in the records we hold, Coventry has won 3 of them to Sunderland's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
Coventry won the last one 3–1 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 |
| Sunderland | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueCoventry 3–1 Sunderland - 13 May 2025
ChampionshipSunderland 1–1 Coventry - 9 May 2025
ChampionshipCoventry 1–2 Sunderland - 15 Mar 2025
ChampionshipCoventry 3–0 Sunderland - 9 Nov 2024
ChampionshipSunderland 2–2 Coventry - 23 Dec 2023
ChampionshipSunderland 0–3 Coventry - 26 Aug 2023
ChampionshipCoventry 0–0 Sunderland
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Coventry's attack rates 15% above Sunderland's, and Sunderland concede 17% fewer than Coventry. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 0.93 | 1.21 |
| Sunderland | 0.81 | 1.00 |
The result against the call
Coventry beat Sunderland 3–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sunderland at 36% and given a win for Coventry 35%. The goals: Tatsuhiro Sakamoto 17' for Coventry, Taiwo Awoniyi 37' for Coventry, Jack Rudoni 52' for Coventry, Enzo Le Fée (penalty) 67' for Sunderland. Sent off: Omar Alderete (Sunderland) 90+9'. On expected goals it finished 0.79–1.72.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Coventry a 61.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 54.0% after a win, 63.4% after a draw, 67.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 54.0%, 7.2 points lower than before the match.
For Sunderland the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 39.9% going in: 32.4% after a win, 40.9% after a draw, 45.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 45.8%, 5.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Coventry v Sunderland has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 35% / 29% / 36%: the biggest move is Coventry's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Coventry win35%▼ −4
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Sunderland win36%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.