Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Tottenham 2-0 Crystal Palace.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Tottenham, 27% draw, 26% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Tottenham at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31A. KinskýG
- 14A. GrayD
- 6J. van HeckeD
- 37M. van de VenD
- 3A. RobertsonD
- 16S. TonaliM
- 18Mateus FernandesM
- 20M. KudusM
- 22Omar MarmoushM
- 11M. TelM
- 19D. SolankeF
- 68L. Williams-BarnettM
- 10J. MaddisonM
- 21D. KulusevskiM
- 8C. GallagherM
- 33B. DaviesD
- 13D. UdogieD
- 23Pedro PorroD
- 5M. SenesiD
- 39M. DúbravkaG
- 1D. HendersonG
- 26C. RichardsD
- 5A. DisasiD
- 6J. CanvotD
- 30Óscar MinguezaM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 18D. KamadaM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 11D. McNeilM
- 10Yeremy PinoM
- 14J. MatetaF
- 29E. GuessandF
- 9E. NketiahF
- 24D. OsorioM
- 28C. DoucouréM
- 19W. HughesM
- 25A. KhalailiD
- 8J. LermaM
- 33B. ChilwellD
- 44W. BenítezG
Form going into Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
Tottenham
Premier League
- W2-0away to Chelsea24 October 2026
- W3-1Coventry19 October 2026
- D1-1away to Manchester United10 October 2026
Crystal Palace
Premier League
- L0-2Newcastle25 October 2026
- L0-5away to Brighton18 October 2026
- W3-1Nottingham Forest11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Tottenham
Crystal Palace and Tottenham have met 7 times in the records we hold, Tottenham has won 4 of them to Crystal Palace's 3.
The record
Tottenham won the last one 2–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 9 |
| Tottenham | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueTottenham 2–0 Crystal Palace - 5 Mar 2026
Premier LeagueTottenham 1–3 Crystal Palace - 28 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 0–1 Tottenham - 11 May 2025
Premier LeagueTottenham 0–2 Crystal Palace - 27 Oct 2024
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 1–0 Tottenham - 2 Mar 2024
Premier LeagueTottenham 3–1 Crystal Palace - 27 Oct 2023
Premier LeagueCrystal Palace 1–2 Tottenham
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and Tottenham concede 29% fewer than Crystal Palace. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 0.84 | 1.27 |
| Tottenham | 0.86 | 0.90 |
The result against the call
Tottenham beat Crystal Palace 2–0. The model had made a win for Tottenham its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Archie Gray 25' for Tottenham, Jan Paul van Hecke 73' for Tottenham. Sent off: Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace) 13'. On expected goals it finished 3.34–0.21.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Tottenham a 20.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 16.2% after a win, 21.3% after a draw, 25.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.2%, 3.9 points lower than before the match.
For Crystal Palace the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 61.3% going in: 53.4% after a win, 61.1% after a draw, 65.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 65.4%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Tottenham v Crystal Palace has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 27% / 26%: the biggest move is Tottenham's chance of winning, up 11 points.
- Tottenham win47%▲ +11
- Draw27%▼ −1
- Crystal Palace win26%▼ −10
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.