Bournemouth vs Leeds Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Bournemouth 2-0 Leeds.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Bournemouth, 28% draw, 32% Leeds — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Bournemouth at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Bournemouth vs Leeds
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 15A. SmithD
- 5J. HillD
- 14António SilvaD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 12T. AdamsM
- 10R. ChristieM
- 37RayanM
- 19J. KluivertM
- 16M. TavernierM
- 9EvanilsonF
- 7D. BrooksM
- 4L. CookM
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 21A. AdliF
- 11B. DoakF
- 22E. KroupiF
- 30Á. RodríguezF
- 6J. SolerD
- 1J. TraffordG
- 24J. JustinD
- 30N. ElvediD
- 5T. MuharemovićD
- 2J. BogleM
- 4E. AmpaduM
- 22A. TanakaM
- 3G. GudmundssonM
- 10H. WilsonM
- 7D. JamesM
- 9D. Calvert-LewinF
- 11B. AaronsonM
- 23J. BahoyaF
- 26M. BardD
- 15J. BijolD
- 44I. GruevM
- 8S. LongstaffM
- 14L. NmechaF
- 18A. StachM
- 16M. ZettererG
Form going into Bournemouth vs Leeds
Bournemouth
Premier League
- W3-0away to Manchester United25 October 2026
- W2-0Sunderland18 October 2026
- L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026
Leeds
Premier League
- D0-0away to Sunderland25 October 2026
- D1-1Manchester United18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Arsenal10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
| 9 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Leeds
Bournemouth and Leeds have met 7 times in the records we hold, Leeds has won 3 of them to Bournemouth's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Bournemouth won the last one 2–0 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 13 |
| Leeds | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 14 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 27 goals, an average of 3.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Premier LeagueBournemouth 2–0 Leeds - 22 Apr 2026
Premier LeagueBournemouth 2–2 Leeds - 27 Sep 2025
Premier LeagueLeeds 2–2 Bournemouth - 30 Apr 2023
Premier LeagueBournemouth 4–1 Leeds - 5 Nov 2022
Premier LeagueLeeds 4–3 Bournemouth - 20 Jan 2015
ChampionshipLeeds 1–0 Bournemouth - 16 Sep 2014
ChampionshipBournemouth 1–3 Leeds
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bournemouth's attack rates 31% above Leeds', and Leeds concede 12% fewer than Bournemouth. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.17 | 0.89 |
| Leeds | 0.89 | 0.78 |
Leading scorers: Bournemouth and Leeds
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- Evanilson54
- M. Tavernier50
Leeds
GoalsAssists
- D. Calvert-Lewin31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Bournemouth beat Leeds 2–0. The model had made a win for Bournemouth its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Francisco Evanilson 31' for Bournemouth, Amine Adli 90+4' for Bournemouth. On expected goals it finished 1.33–0.73.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Bournemouth a 5.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.9% after a win, 5.7% after a draw, 6.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.9%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.
For Leeds the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 7.6% going in: 9.6% after a win, 6.9% after a draw, 5.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.7%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Bournemouth v Leeds has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 35% / 28% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 28% / 32%: the biggest move is Bournemouth's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Bournemouth win40%▲ +5
- Draw28%=
- Leeds win32%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.