Pumas UNAM vs Club America Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Pumas UNAM 2-2 Club America.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Pumas UNAM, 25% draw, 36% Club America — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pumas UNAM at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pumas UNAM vs Club America
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LópezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5Rubén DuarteD
- 2P. BennevendoD
- 21U. AntunaM
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 10C. HuertaM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 23JuninhoF
- 19J. RivasD
- 14L. HerreraF
- 34Á. AzuajeD
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 77Á. AnguloD
- 35P. LaraG
- 24T. LeoneD
- 15I. LunaM
- 30Santiago López LópezF
- 1L. MalagónG
- 5K. ÁlvarezD
- 3I. ReyesD
- 15S. RamosD
- 26C. BorjaD
- 28É. SánchezM
- 13A. CervantesM
- 10A. ZendejasM
- 8Carlos ÁlvarezM
- 22Ó. PereaM
- 9H. MartínF
- 6E. CerrilloM
- 30R. CotaG
- 189A. CardenasF
- 34D. EspinozaM
- 20A. GutiérrezM
- 206Derek JimenezM
- 29R. JuárezD
- 12I. ViolanteF
- 217IcaroM
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Club America
Pumas UNAM
Liga MX
- W2-1away to Puebla31 October 2026
- D1-1Tigres UANL25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Santos Laguna22 October 2026
- W2-1away to Atlante FC17 October 2026
Club America
Liga MX
- D2-2Toluca1 November 2026
- D1-1Club Tijuana29 October 2026
- L1-2CF Pachuca26 October 2026
- W5-2away to Atlas22 October 2026
What these results say
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Pumas UNAM scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Pumas UNAM.
- Club America scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Club America conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Club America.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
| 2 | Club America | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Club America
- 11 May 2026Pumas UNAM 3–3 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 3 May 2026Club America 3–3 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 22 March 2026Pumas UNAM 1–0 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 28 September 2025Club America 4–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 23 February 2025Pumas UNAM 0–2 Club AmericaLiga MX
- 30 September 2024Club America 0–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Club America
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Club America
GoalsAssists
- H. Martín113
- M. Borja60
- B. Rodríguez53
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pumas UNAM and Club America drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Pumas UNAM at 39% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Álex Zendejas 3' for Club America, Cesar Huerta 4' for Pumas UNAM, Henry Martin (penalty) 72' for Club America, Robert Morales (penalty) 77' for Pumas UNAM. On expected goals it finished 1.61–1.85.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pumas UNAM these chances to finish in the top eight: 53.4% after a win, 9.9% after a draw, 1.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 9.9%.
For Club America the question was the chance to finish top of the Apertura, 33.8% going in: 64.4% after a win, 27.4% after a draw, 9.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 27.4%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Pumas UNAM v Club America has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 37% / 24% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 39% / 25% / 36%: the biggest move is Club America's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Pumas UNAM win39%▲ +2
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Club America win36%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.