Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 1-1 Independiente.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Defensa Y Justicia, 30% draw, 25% Independiente — fair odds of 2.22, 3.33 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Defensa Y Justicia at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. BorgognoG
- 28V. LozaD
- 32Nazareno RoselliD
- 21D. MartínezD
- 30D. DomínguezD
- 15S. SosaM
- 8C. PérezM
- 24J. GutiérrezM
- 19D. BarbonaM
- 26J. LuccoM
- 9L. FernándezF
- 27D. BlancoM
- 6E. BurdinD
- 17A. HauschF
- 10A. MolinasM
- 99N. PalavecinoM
- 11Tiziano PerrotaF
- 22M. PorcelM
- 16A. PortilloM
- 7T. PérezF
- 77S. MeleG
- 4S. AriasD
- 36S. ValdezD
- 35J. ArrayagoD
- 5N. BanegasD
- 16M. PerezM
- 20Facundo CruzM
- 7S. MontielM
- 8M. MezaM
- 24J. PalaisM
- 6E. ÁvilaF
- 2F. CalderónD
- 10L. CabralM
- 13J. FedorcoD
- 29L. GodoyD
- 11I. MachucaF
- 32D. MartínezM
- 14Lautaro MillánM
- 9I. MoralesF
- 30Tomás ParmoM
Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1away to Talleres Cordoba24 October 2026
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Union Santa Fe10 October 2026
Independiente
Liga Profesional Argentina
- L0-1Boca Juniors25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Racing Club18 October 2026
- D0-0away to Talleres Cordoba12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 28 |
| 7 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia and Independiente have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Defensa Y Justicia on 2 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Independiente | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 12 goals, an average of 1.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Nov 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaDefensa Y Justicia 1–1 Independiente - 18 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente 3–1 Defensa Y Justicia - 4 Jun 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaDefensa Y Justicia 0–0 Independiente - 20 Feb 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente 0–2 Defensa Y Justicia - 20 Jul 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaDefensa Y Justicia 2–1 Independiente - 21 Aug 2021
Liga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente 0–0 Defensa Y Justicia - 18 Apr 2021
Liga Profesional ArgentinaIndependiente 1–0 Defensa Y Justicia
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Defensa Y Justicia's attack rates 10% above Independiente's, and the two defences are almost level. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia | 0.86 | 1.23 |
| Independiente | 0.78 | 1.23 |
Leading scorers: Defensa Y Justicia and Independiente
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.
Independiente
GoalsAssists
- G. Ávalos115
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Defensa Y Justicia and Independiente drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Defensa Y Justicia at 45% and given a draw 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Leandro Fernández 38' for Defensa Y Justicia, Maximiliano Meza (penalty) 44' for Independiente. On expected goals it finished 1.03–1.66.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Independiente a 68.8% chance to finish in the top eight: 99.4% after a win, 65.1% after a draw, 55.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 65.1%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.