Gais vs AIK Stockholm Allsvenskan prediction & result
Final score: Gais 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Gais, 26% draw, 29% AIK Stockholm — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Gais at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gais vs AIK Stockholm
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. KrasniqiG
- 6A. WängbergD
- 12R. FrejD
- 4O. ÅgrenD
- 5R. ThomassonD
- 8W. MilovanovicM
- 7J. ÅbergM
- 2M. de BrienneM
- 16M. AnderssonF
- 21N. VasićF
- 11R. NiklassonF
- 22A. CardaklijaD
- 28L. HedlundF
- 33A. HermansenG
- 25Jonas LindbergM
- 9G. LundgrenM
- 32O. PetterssonF
- 20S. SalterF
- 14S. JørgensenF
- 27M. BawaM
- 15K. NordfeldtG
- 17M. ThychosenD
- 33D. TomasD
- 34W. OlofssonD
- 21S. WilsonD
- 48A. KouameM
- 46Yannick GeigerM
- 19D. BeširovićM
- 45T. AyariM
- 18A. AliF
- 16Sixten GustafssonF
- 9L. CarlstrandF
- 6M. EllingsenM
- 8J. HoveM
- 28L. JäretegM
- 30K. JoelssonG
- 3H. MatthysD
- 14F. NissenD
- 12C. PaveyD
- 10L. AssadiM
Form going into Gais vs AIK Stockholm
Gais
Allsvenskan
- W1-0away to Kalmar FF29 October 2026
- D1-1IFK Goteborg25 October 2026
- L2-4away to Orgryte IS18 October 2026
AIK Stockholm
Allsvenskan
- D2-2IF Elfsborg27 October 2026
- W2-1away to Sirius24 October 2026
- D2-2IFK Goteborg17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Gais | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 40 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Gais vs AIK Stockholm
- 18 July 2026AIK Stockholm 2–0 GaisAllsvenskan
- 14 March 2026Gais 3–2 AIK StockholmSvenska Cupen
- 28 September 2025AIK Stockholm 1–1 GaisAllsvenskan
- 31 March 2025Gais 0–1 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
- 29 July 2024AIK Stockholm 0–1 GaisAllsvenskan
- 22 July 2024Gais 2–0 AIK StockholmAllsvenskan
Leading scorers: Gais and AIK Stockholm
Gais
No player in Allsvenskan's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
AIK Stockholm
GoalsAssists
- J. Hove113
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gais beat AIK Stockholm 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Gais at 45%. The goals: Melvin Andersson 36' for Gais, Rasmus Niklasson Petrovic 53' for Gais, axel kouame 76' for AIK Stockholm. On expected goals it finished 0.53–0.75.
How the call on Gais v AIK Stockholm has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 26% / 29%: the biggest move is Gais's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Gais win45%▼ −2
- Draw26%=
- AIK Stockholm win29%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.