Vasco da Gama
vs
Internacional
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Vasco da Gama 1–0 Internacional
The model makes it 48% Vasco da Gama, 27% draw, 25% Internacional — fair odds of 2.08, 3.70 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.65, Internacional 1.06.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Vasco da Gama are 11th on 44 points from 34 games; Internacional are 16th on 38 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Vasco da Gama have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Chapecoense.
- Internacional have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Coritiba.
- Last 6 meetings: Internacional 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Internacional 4–1 Vasco da Gama.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vasco da Gama vs Internacional
Has the model earned this number?
Vasco da Gama at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Internacional
Vasco da Gama
Serie A
- W2-0away to Chapecoense14 November 2026
- W3-1away to Atletico Paranaense4 November 2026
- L1-4Flamengo29 October 2026
- W3-2Corinthians24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
Internacional
Serie A
- W1-0Coritiba4 November 2026
- L1-2away to Fluminense28 October 2026
- W3-0Botafogo24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Mirassol16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio11 October 2026
What these results say
- Vasco da Gama scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Internacional scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 44 |
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Internacional
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 29% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Internacional vs Vasco da Gama
Internacional and Vasco da Gama have met 6 times in the records we hold, Internacional has won 3 of them to Vasco da Gama's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Internacional won the last one 4–1 on 16 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| Vasco da Gama | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 3.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 16 May 2026
Serie AInternacional 4–1 Vasco da Gama - 28 Nov 2025
Serie AVasco da Gama 5–1 Internacional - 27 Jul 2025
Serie AInternacional 1–1 Vasco da Gama - 21 Nov 2024
Serie AVasco da Gama 0–1 Internacional - 7 Jul 2024
Serie AInternacional 1–2 Vasco da Gama - 27 Oct 2023
Serie AVasco da Gama 1–2 Internacional
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Vasco da Gama's attack rates 19% above Internacional's, and Internacional concede 7% fewer than Vasco da Gama. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 0.78 | 1.12 |
| Vasco da Gama | 0.93 | 1.21 |
Leading scorers: Vasco da Gama and Internacional
Vasco da Gama
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 45 league goals as a side.
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasco da Gama the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Vasco da Gama against 1.06 for Internacional. Vasco da Gama's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.12 for Internacional.
How the model reaches 48% for Vasco da Gama to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Vasco da Gama to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Vasco da Gama's ratings add 2 points and Internacional's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Vasco da Gama's ratings47%+2
- Internacional's ratings48%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Vasco da Gama at home · Internacional away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Vasco da Gama 34, Internacional 34.
Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Internacional have let in 11 there.
Internacional score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Vasco da Gama have let in 10 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Vasco da Gama
- at RB Bragantino22 Nov · Serie Awin 27%
- at Atletico Mineiro29 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Vitoria3 Dec · Serie Awin 55%
Internacional
- vs Vitoria23 Nov · Serie Awin 50%
- vs RB Bragantino29 Nov · Serie Awin 40%
- at Cruzeiro3 Dec · Serie Awin 20%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.