Parma vs Udinese Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Parma 0-0 Udinese.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Parma, 32% draw, 37% Udinese — fair odds of 3.23, 3.13 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Udinese at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Parma vs Udinese
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30G. DaffaraG
- 15E. Del PratoD
- 37M. TroiloD
- 72D. DrobnicD
- 27S. BritschgiM
- 4V. SierroM
- 16M. KeitaM
- 29F. CarboniM
- 10Adrián BernabéM
- 19E. TouréM
- 9D. RomeroF
- 11P. AlmqvistF
- 40E. CorviG
- 25T. De MartisF
- 8B. CremaschiM
- 7Ousmane DialloF
- 32C. OrdoñezM
- 14E. ValeriD
- 34Diego CarlosD
- 80G. FabbianM
- 40M. OkoyeG
- 14J. AbankwahD
- 27C. KabaseleD
- 16M. PalmaD
- 13N. BertolaM
- 8J. KarlströmM
- 30G. ChakvetadzeM
- 11H. KamaraM
- 10N. ZanioloM
- 32J. EkkelenkampM
- 9K. DavisF
- 6Oier ZarragaM
- 20J. ArizalaM
- 77E. EbosseD
- 46Unai GómezM
- 91L. JovanoviÄF
- 4S. LovrićM
- 38L. MillerM
- 41B. MrozekG
- 93D. PadelliG
Form going into Parma vs Udinese
Parma
Serie A
- L1-2away to Lazio24 October 2026
- L0-3Torino19 October 2026
Udinese
Serie A
- L0-2AC Milan25 October 2026
- L0-3Lecce18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Parma | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Parma vs Udinese
Parma and Udinese have met 7 times in the records we hold, Udinese has won 4 of them to Parma's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at Parma on 28 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| Udinese | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Oct 2026
Serie AParma 0–0 Udinese - 18 Apr 2026
Serie AUdinese 0–1 Parma - 29 Nov 2025
Serie AParma 0–2 Udinese - 1 Mar 2025
Serie AUdinese 1–0 Parma - 16 Sep 2024
Serie AParma 2–3 Udinese - 21 Feb 2021
Serie AParma 2–2 Udinese - 18 Oct 2020
Serie AUdinese 3–2 Parma
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Udinese's attack rates 26% above Parma's, and Parma concede 19% fewer than Udinese. How the ratings are derived.
The result against the call
Parma and Udinese drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Udinese at 37% and given a draw 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.12–1.41.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Parma a 60.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 53.2% after a win, 61.6% after a draw, 66.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.6%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.
For Udinese the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 32.4% going in: 25.4% after a win, 33.6% after a draw, 39.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.6%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Parma v Udinese has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 30% / 31% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 31% / 32% / 37%: the biggest move is Udinese's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Parma win31%▲ +1
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Udinese win37%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.