Monza vs Napoli Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Monza 1-4 Napoli.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Monza, 23% draw, 54% Napoli — fair odds of 4.35, 4.35 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Napoli at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monza vs Napoli
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. TörnqvistG
- 19S. BirindelliD
- 2S. GoglichidzeD
- 3L. LucchesiD
- 24A. BakouneM
- 8M. OndoaM
- 21L. ColomboM
- 7Ricardo MangasM
- 16C. NgongeM
- 46Jay RobinsonM
- 9Gustavo VarelaF
- 27I. TouréM
- 14E. AkinsanmiroM
- 22E. ZeballosF
- 20D. ThiamG
- 6V. AntovD
- 44A. CarboniD
- 26P. CiurriaF
- 28A. ColpaniM
- 10P. CutroneF
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 17M. OliveraD
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
- 68S. LobotkaM
- 8S. McTominayM
- 21M. PolitanoF
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 70N. LangF
- 1A. MeretG
- 35Luca MarianucciD
- 20L. LuccaF
- 23GiovaneF
- 6B. GilmourM
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 14N. ContiniG
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 26A. VergaraM
Form going into Monza vs Napoli
Monza
Serie A
- L2-3away to Torino23 October 2026
- W4-0Cagliari19 October 2026
Napoli
Serie A
- D3-3AS Roma24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Venezia17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Monza | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Napoli | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monza vs Napoli
Monza and Napoli have met 7 times in the records we hold, Napoli has won 5 of them to Monza's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Napoli won the last one 4–1 on 28 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 |
| Napoli | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 5 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Oct 2026
Serie AMonza 1–4 Napoli - 19 Apr 2025
Serie AMonza 0–1 Napoli - 29 Sep 2024
Serie ANapoli 2–0 Monza - 7 Apr 2024
Serie AMonza 2–4 Napoli - 29 Dec 2023
Serie ANapoli 0–0 Monza - 14 May 2023
Serie AMonza 2–0 Napoli - 21 Aug 2022
Serie ANapoli 4–0 Monza
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Napoli's attack rates 20% above Monza's, and Napoli concede 46% fewer than Monza. That gives Napoli the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Monza and Napoli
Monza
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Varela91
Napoli
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Napoli won 4–1 at Monza. The model had made a win for Napoli its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Rasmus Hojlund 10' for Napoli, Gustavo Varela 43' for Monza, Matteo Politano 48' for Napoli, Rafael Marin Zamora 62' for Napoli, Kevin De Bruyne 67' for Napoli. On expected goals it finished 1.22–1.84.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Monza a 18.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 13.7% after a win, 18.6% after a draw, 20.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.6%, 2 points higher than before the match.
For Napoli the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 21.7% going in: 25.0% after a win, 18.5% after a draw, 16.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.0%, 3.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Monza v Napoli has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 17% / 22% / 61% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 23% / 23% / 54%: the biggest move is Napoli's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Monza win23%▲ +6
- Draw23%▲ +1
- Napoli win54%▼ −7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.