Genoa vs Juventus Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Genoa 2-0 Juventus.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Genoa, 30% draw, 49% Juventus — fair odds of 4.76, 3.33 and 2.04.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Juventus at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Genoa vs Juventus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. BijlowG
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 22J. VásquezD
- 3K. EhizibueM
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 77M. EllertssonM
- 9VítinhaM
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 18M. OsmajićF
- 25H. TraorèM
- 71S. WiafeM
- 92S. El ShaarawyF
- 29L. ColomboF
- 10Junior MessiasF
- 11E. MeichtryM
- 2M. MitajD
- 34S. OtoaD
- 31D. PuczkaD
- 25G. VicarioG
- 4F. GattiD
- 3BremerD
- 26J. LucumíD
- 15P. KaluluM
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 29P. SarrM
- 20A. CambiasoM
- 22W. McKennieM
- 17Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
- 9R. Kolo MuaniF
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 24D. RuganiD
- 23C. PinsoglioG
- 43F. PagnuccoM
- 41A. OwusuM
- 33NetoG
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 6L. KellyD
- 47A. DurmišiF
Form going into Genoa vs Juventus
Genoa
Serie A
- W1-0Venezia25 October 2026
- L0-2away to AS Roma17 October 2026
Juventus
Serie A
- W2-0away to Lecce25 October 2026
- L0-3Lazio18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 13 |
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Juventus
Genoa and Juventus have met 7 times in the records we hold, Juventus has won 4 of them to Genoa's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Genoa won the last one 2–0 on 28 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| Juventus | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 3 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 28 Oct 2026
Serie AGenoa 2–0 Juventus - 6 Apr 2026
Serie AJuventus 2–0 Genoa - 31 Aug 2025
Serie AGenoa 0–1 Juventus - 29 Mar 2025
Serie AJuventus 1–0 Genoa - 28 Sep 2024
Serie AGenoa 0–3 Juventus - 17 Mar 2024
Serie AJuventus 0–0 Genoa - 15 Dec 2023
Serie AGenoa 1–1 Juventus
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Juventus' attack rates 39% above Genoa's, and Juventus concede 20% fewer than Genoa. That gives Juventus the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Genoa and Juventus
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić41
Juventus
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Genoa beat Juventus 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Juventus at 49% and given a win for Genoa 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Kingsley Ehizibue 12' for Genoa, Tommaso Baldanzi 28' for Genoa. On expected goals it finished 1.05–1.28.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Genoa a 26.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.0% after a win, 25.5% after a draw, 28.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.0%, 7.1 points lower than before the match.
For Juventus the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 24.0% going in: 26.9% after a win, 21.1% after a draw, 18.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.7%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Genoa v Juventus has moved
First published on 14 Oct at 19% / 26% / 55% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 21% / 30% / 49%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Genoa win21%▲ +2
- Draw30%▲ +4
- Juventus win49%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.