28 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

AC Milan vs Bologna Serie A prediction & result

Milan
Referee: Juan Luca Sacchi
Full time2 – 4

Final score: AC Milan 2-4 Bologna.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% AC Milan, 29% draw, 21% Bologna — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

AC Milan at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽Samuel Mbangula Tshifundaassist: Nadir Zortea
⚽Alphadjo Cissè
14'
⚽Alphadjo Cissèassist: Fikayo Tomori
27'
🔁Fikayo Tomoriout: Luka Modrić
45'
🔁Pervis Estupinanout: Sankhoun Diawara
58'
🔁Omari Hutchinsonout: Christian Pulisic
58'
58'
🔁Matteo Darmianout: Martin Vitik
59'
🔁Rahim Alhassaneout: Juan Miranda
59'
🔁Federico Bernardeschiout: Nicolo Cambiaghi
60'
⚽Davide Bartesaghi (OG)
62'
⚽Samuel Mbangula Tshifundaassist: Juan Miranda
🔁Davide Bartesaghiout: Francesco Camarda
63'
70'
🔁Arthur Theateout: Torbjørn Heggem
76'
Tommaso Pobega
79'
🔁Nicolo Casaleout: Eivind Helland
84'
Torbjørn Heggem
86'
⚽Samuel Mbangula Tshifundaassist: Jens Odgaard
🔁Gonçalo Ramosout: Christian Comotto
87'

Match stats — AC Milan vs Bologna

66%Possession34%
8Shots9
3On target5
2Corners3
1.75xG1.89

Goals against chances

AC Milan2 from 1.75 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bologna4 from 1.89 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AC Milan 4-2-3-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 23F. TomoriD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 31S. PavlovićD
  • 2P. EstupiñánD
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 30A. JashariM
  • 20O. HutchinsonM
  • 70A. CissèM
  • 33D. BartesaghiM
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
Substitutes
  • 55Silvano VosM
  • 73F. CamardaF
  • 41L. P. BouyerG
  • 28C. ComottoM
  • 13S. BocoumD
  • 14L. ModrićM
  • 40L. OssolaM
  • 11C. PulišićM
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
Coach: Ruben Amorim
Bologna 3-4-3
  • 1Ł. SkorupskiG
  • 36M. DarmianD
  • 16N. CasaleD
  • 3A. TheateD
  • 20N. ZorteaM
  • 19L. FergusonM
  • 4T. PobegaM
  • 23R. AlhassaneM
  • 10F. BernardeschiF
  • 21J. OdgaardF
  • 11S. MbangulaF
Substitutes
  • 41M. VitíkD
  • 25M. PessinaG
  • 6N. MoroM
  • 33Juan MirandaD
  • 18M. LibraM
  • 14T. HeggemD
  • 72U. HapponenG
  • 5E. HellandD
  • 17O. El AzzouziM
Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Form going into AC Milan vs Bologna

AC Milan

Serie A

  • W2-0away to Udinese25 October 2026
  • W3-2Atalanta18 October 2026

Bologna

Serie A

  • W2-0away to Cagliari24 October 2026
  • L1-3Inter17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4AC Milan117312313+1024
8Bologna115241614+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Bologna

AC Milan and Bologna have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.

The record

Bologna won the last one 4–2 on 28 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
AC Milan3131210
Bologna3131012

Between them these 7 meetings produced 22 goals, an average of 3.14 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 28 Oct 2026
    Serie A    AC Milan 2–4 Bologna
  • 3 Feb 2026
    Serie A    Bologna 0–3 AC Milan
  • 14 Sep 2025
    Serie A    AC Milan 1–0 Bologna
  • 14 May 2025
    Coppa Italia    AC Milan 0–1 Bologna
  • 9 May 2025
    Serie A    AC Milan 3–1 Bologna
  • 27 Feb 2025
    Serie A    Bologna 2–1 AC Milan
  • 27 Jan 2024
    Serie A    AC Milan 2–2 Bologna

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, AC Milan's attack rates 28% above Bologna's, and AC Milan concede 11% fewer than Bologna. That gives AC Milan the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
AC Milan1.320.79
Bologna1.030.89

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: AC Milan and Bologna

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rabiot54
  • A. Cissè50
  • Diego Moreira43

Bologna

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bologna won 4–2 at AC Milan. The model had leaned towards a win for AC Milan at 50% and given a win for Bologna 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda 8' for Bologna, Alphadjo Cissè 14' for AC Milan, Alphadjo Cissè 27' for AC Milan, Davide Bartesaghi (own goal) 60' for Bologna, Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda 62' for Bologna, Samuel Mbangula Tshifunda 86' for Bologna. On expected goals it finished 1.75–1.89.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AC Milan a 47.8% chance to finish in the top four: 52.4% after a win, 44.2% after a draw, 38.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.2%, 9.6 points lower than before the match.

For Bologna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 6.6% going in: 4.0% after a win, 5.8% after a draw, 7.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.0%, 2.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.