Udinese vs AC Milan Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Udinese 0-2 AC Milan.
Before kick-off the model made it 23% Udinese, 26% draw, 51% AC Milan — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
AC Milan at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Udinese vs AC Milan
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40M. OkoyeG
- 14J. AbankwahD
- 27C. KabaseleD
- 16M. PalmaD
- 23M. VojvodaM
- 24J. PiotrowskiM
- 8J. KarlströmM
- 11H. KamaraM
- 30G. ChakvetadzeM
- 32J. EkkelenkampM
- 9K. DavisF
- 77E. EbosseD
- 6Oier ZarragaM
- 10N. ZanioloM
- 45G. VinciatiF
- 93D. PadelliG
- 20J. ArizalaM
- 13N. BertolaD
- 46Unai GómezM
- 91L. JovanoviÄF
- 16M. MaignanG
- 23F. TomoriD
- 5K. De WinterD
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 13S. BocoumD
- 20O. HutchinsonM
- 14L. ModrićM
- 30A. JashariM
- 33D. BartesaghiM
- 11C. PulišićM
- 9Gonçalo RamosF
- 55Silvano VosM
- 41L. P. BouyerG
- 73F. CamardaF
- 70A. CissèM
- 28C. ComottoM
- 2P. EstupiñánD
- 8R. Loftus-CheekM
- 80Y. MusahM
- 40L. OssolaM
Form going into Udinese vs AC Milan
Udinese
Serie A
- L0-3Lecce18 October 2026
AC Milan
Serie A
- W3-2Atalanta18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AC Milan vs Udinese
AC Milan and Udinese have met 7 times in the records we hold, AC Milan has won 5 of them to Udinese's 2.
The record
AC Milan won the last one 2–0 on 25 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 |
| Udinese | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 13 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 25 Oct 2026
Serie AUdinese 0–2 AC Milan - 11 Apr 2026
Serie AAC Milan 0–3 Udinese - 20 Sep 2025
Serie AUdinese 0–3 AC Milan - 11 Apr 2025
Serie AUdinese 0–4 AC Milan - 19 Oct 2024
Serie AAC Milan 1–0 Udinese - 20 Jan 2024
Serie AUdinese 2–3 AC Milan - 4 Nov 2023
Serie AAC Milan 0–1 Udinese
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, AC Milan's attack rates 53% above Udinese's, and AC Milan concede 31% fewer than Udinese. That gives AC Milan the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Udinese and AC Milan
Udinese
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
AC Milan
GoalsAssists
- A. Rabiot54
- A. Cissè50
- Diego Moreira43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AC Milan won 2–0 at Udinese. The model had made a win for AC Milan its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Christian Pulisic 6' for AC Milan, Omari Hutchinson 65' for AC Milan. On expected goals it finished 0.59–3.61.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Udinese a 27.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.0% after a win, 27.2% after a draw, 30.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.1%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
For AC Milan the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 38.6% going in: 42.9% after a win, 35.6% after a draw, 30.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.9%, 4.3 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Udinese v AC Milan has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 23% / 26% / 51%: the biggest move is AC Milan's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Udinese win23%▼ −4
- Draw26%▼ −1
- AC Milan win51%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.