La Liga

1. Barcelona — 33 points from 12 played (11 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost), 48 scored, 13 conceded, goal difference +35. Form, oldest first: W W L W W.
2. Real Madrid — 30 points from 12 played (10 won, 0 drawn, 2 lost), 31 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +21. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
3. Atletico Madrid — 28 points from 12 played (9 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost), 23 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference +13. Form, oldest first: W W W W L.
4. Real Betis — 26 points from 12 played (8 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 20 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: W L D W W.
5. Real Sociedad — 22 points from 12 played (7 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 21 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W W W L W.
6. Sevilla — 18 points from 12 played (5 won, 3 drawn, 4 lost), 17 scored, 19 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: D L W L D.
7. Athletic Club — 16 points from 11 played (4 won, 4 drawn, 3 lost), 15 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference +4. Form, oldest first: D L W W D.
8. Villarreal — 15 points from 12 played (4 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 17 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: L D W L W.
9. Deportivo La Coruna — 15 points from 12 played (3 won, 6 drawn, 3 lost), 15 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: L D L W D.
10. Racing Santander — 14 points from 12 played (4 won, 2 drawn, 6 lost), 17 scored, 30 conceded, goal difference -13. Form, oldest first: D L W L W.
11. Celta Vigo — 13 points from 12 played (2 won, 7 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference 0. Form, oldest first: D W D L D.
12. Alaves — 13 points from 12 played (3 won, 4 drawn, 5 lost), 15 scored, 17 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L L D L D.
13. Espanyol — 12 points from 12 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 13 scored, 14 conceded, goal difference -1. Form, oldest first: D L L W D.
14. Rayo Vallecano — 12 points from 11 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 5 lost), 15 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: D D L W L.
15. Getafe — 12 points from 12 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 8 scored, 18 conceded, goal difference -10. Form, oldest first: L D L W L.
16. Osasuna — 12 points from 12 played (3 won, 3 drawn, 6 lost), 12 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -11. Form, oldest first: L W L L D.
17. Levante — 11 points from 12 played (2 won, 5 drawn, 5 lost), 16 scored, 21 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: D W L L D.
18. Elche — 10 points from 12 played (2 won, 4 drawn, 6 lost), 14 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: D D W L L.
19. Valencia — 9 points from 12 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 7 lost), 8 scored, 20 conceded, goal difference -12. Form, oldest first: D D L W L.
20. Malaga — 5 points from 12 played (0 won, 5 drawn, 7 lost), 9 scored, 23 conceded, goal difference -14. Form, oldest first: D L D L L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 11 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Barcelona — title chance up 0.6, to 50.3%.
• Real Madrid — title chance down 0.6, to 43.5%.
• Alaves — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 14.7%.
• Athletic Club — bottom-three risk up 0.1, to 1%.
• Atletico Madrid — title chance up 0.1, to 5.3%.

Season projection

Every one of the 260 matches this competition has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. Movement is measured against 2026-11-14, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Barcelona — projected to finish on 91.6 points, from 33 after 12 played. Wins it 50.3% (up 0.6), finishes top four 99.9%, bottom three 0%.
2. Real Madrid — projected to finish on 90.9 points, from 30 after 12 played. Wins it 43.5% (down 0.6), finishes top four 99.8%, bottom three 0%.
3. Atletico Madrid — projected to finish on 80.1 points, from 28 after 12 played. Wins it 5.3% (up 0.1), finishes top four 92.9%, bottom three 0%.
4. Real Betis — projected to finish on 71.7 points, from 26 after 12 played. Wins it 0.9% (down 0.1), finishes top four 65%, bottom three 0%.
5. Real Sociedad — projected to finish on 62.8 points, from 22 after 12 played. Wins it 0.1%, finishes top four 24.2%, bottom three 0.1%.
6. Villarreal — projected to finish on 58.4 points, from 15 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 11.2%, bottom three 0.5%.
7. Athletic Club — projected to finish on 53.2 points, from 16 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 3%, bottom three 1%.
8. Sevilla — projected to finish on 51.1 points, from 18 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1.7%, bottom three 2.7%.
9. Deportivo La Coruna — projected to finish on 46.5 points, from 15 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.6%, bottom three 6.8%.
10. Levante — projected to finish on 45.3 points, from 11 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.3%, bottom three 10%.
11. Elche — projected to finish on 44.5 points, from 10 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.3%, bottom three 11.7%.
12. Celta Vigo — projected to finish on 44.3 points, from 13 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.3%, bottom three 10.2%.
13. Rayo Vallecano — projected to finish on 43.5 points, from 12 after 11 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.3%, bottom three 13.2%.
14. Espanyol — projected to finish on 43.3 points, from 12 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 12%.
15. Alaves — projected to finish on 43.1 points, from 13 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.2%, bottom three 14.7%.
16. Valencia — projected to finish on 39 points, from 9 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 30.6%.
17. Racing Santander — projected to finish on 38.9 points, from 14 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 31.4%.
18. Getafe — projected to finish on 38.9 points, from 12 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 28.5%.
19. Osasuna — projected to finish on 37.5 points, from 12 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.1%, bottom three 38.5%.
20. Malaga — projected to finish on 26.3 points, from 5 after 12 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0%, bottom three 88.1%.

Top scorers

1. Raphinha (Barcelona) — 15 goals, 3 assists.
2. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) — 13 goals, 2 assists.
3. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) — 10 goals, 8 assists.
4. M. Zabiri (Racing Santander) — 9 goals.
5. A. Budimir (Osasuna) — 8 goals.
6. Fermín (Barcelona) — 7 goals, 5 assists.
7. Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano) — 7 goals, 2 assists.
8. Roberto Fernández (Espanyol) — 6 goals.
9. Fer Niño (Elche) — 6 goals.
10. Álex Baena (Atletico Madrid) — 5 goals, 3 assists.
11. P. Aubameyang (Deportivo La Coruna) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
12. Brugui (Levante) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
13. Adrián Niño Heredia (Malaga) — 5 goals, 1 assist.
14. L. Boyé (Alaves) — 5 goals.
15. M. Díaz (Alaves) — 4 goals, 4 assists.
16. J. Bellingham (Real Madrid) — 4 goals, 3 assists.
17. G. Simeone (Atletico Madrid) — 4 goals, 2 assists.
18. L. Sučić (Real Sociedad) — 4 goals.
19. O. Óskarsson (Real Sociedad) — 4 goals.
20. Álex Berenguer (Athletic Club) — 4 goals, 4 assists.