La Liga

1. Barcelona — 18 points from 6 played (6 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost), 28 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +22. Form, oldest first: W W W W W.
2. Real Madrid — 15 points from 6 played (5 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost), 17 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +11. Form, oldest first: W W L W W.
3. Atletico Madrid — 13 points from 6 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost), 14 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +8. Form, oldest first: D W L W W.
4. Sevilla — 13 points from 6 played (4 won, 1 drawn, 1 lost), 9 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +3. Form, oldest first: W L D W W.
5. Real Betis — 12 points from 5 played (4 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost), 7 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: W W L W W.
6. Alaves — 10 points from 6 played (3 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost), 11 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +5. Form, oldest first: D W W L L.
7. Deportivo La Coruna — 9 points from 6 played (2 won, 3 drawn, 1 lost), 9 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: D W W D L.
8. Espanyol — 7 points from 6 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 9 scored, 7 conceded, goal difference +2. Form, oldest first: L L D W L.
9. Athletic Club — 7 points from 5 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost), 7 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference +1. Form, oldest first: L L W W D.
10. Racing Santander — 7 points from 6 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 11 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L W L W L.
11. Rayo Vallecano — 7 points from 6 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 10 scored, 15 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: D L W L W.
12. Real Sociedad — 7 points from 6 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 6 scored, 11 conceded, goal difference -5. Form, oldest first: L W D W L.
13. Osasuna — 7 points from 6 played (2 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost), 5 scored, 12 conceded, goal difference -7. Form, oldest first: W W L L L.
14. Levante — 5 points from 5 played (1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 7 scored, 9 conceded, goal difference -2. Form, oldest first: L D W D L.
15. Getafe — 5 points from 5 played (1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost), 3 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L W L D D.
16. Celta Vigo — 4 points from 6 played (0 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost), 3 scored, 6 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: L L D D D.
17. Valencia — 4 points from 6 played (1 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost), 2 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L L L L W.
18. Malaga — 3 points from 5 played (0 won, 3 drawn, 2 lost), 2 scored, 8 conceded, goal difference -6. Form, oldest first: L D L D D.
19. Villarreal — 2 points from 5 played (0 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost), 7 scored, 10 conceded, goal difference -3. Form, oldest first: D D L L L.
20. Elche — 2 points from 6 played (0 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost), 8 scored, 16 conceded, goal difference -8. Form, oldest first: L L L D L.

What moved

Measured against 2026-09-16, the last update whose numbers changed — not against the last time the page was built, because an unchanged projection is carried forward rather than restamped. 18 clubs moved in all; the rest are in the projection below.

• Barcelona — title chance up 3.6, to 75.7%.
• Real Madrid — title chance down 3.3, to 19.4%.
• Racing Santander — bottom-three risk up 2.6, to 15.4%.
• Celta Vigo — bottom-three risk down 2, to 28%.
• Levante — bottom-three risk up 1.5, to 21.9%.

Season projection

Every one of the 323 matches this competition has left, played out 10,000 times by the same model that makes our match predictions — but rating each side on its whole season rather than its last six games, since one hot run should not decide a title race. The figures are final positions, not qualification or relegation: those depend on each country's rules and playoffs. A statistical estimate, not betting advice. Movement is measured against 2026-09-16, the last update whose numbers changed.

1. Barcelona — projected to finish on 83.7 points, from 18 after 6 played. Wins it 75.7% (up 3.6), finishes top four 99.8%, bottom three 0%.
2. Real Madrid — projected to finish on 76 points, from 15 after 6 played. Wins it 19.4% (down 3.3), finishes top four 97.6%, bottom three 0%.
3. Atletico Madrid — projected to finish on 68.1 points, from 13 after 6 played. Wins it 3.6% (down 0.3), finishes top four 82.8%, bottom three 0%.
4. Real Betis — projected to finish on 64.1 points, from 12 after 5 played. Wins it 1.2% (down 0.1), finishes top four 62.7%, bottom three 0.1%.
5. Villarreal — projected to finish on 54.5 points, from 2 after 5 played. Wins it 0.1%, finishes top four 14.6%, bottom three 2.9%.
6. Sevilla — projected to finish on 53.1 points, from 13 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 9.9%, bottom three 4.2%.
7. Real Sociedad — projected to finish on 50.9 points, from 7 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 5.8%, bottom three 7.8%.
8. Deportivo La Coruna — projected to finish on 50.2 points, from 9 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 5%, bottom three 9.3%.
9. Alaves — projected to finish on 48.9 points, from 10 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 3.6%, bottom three 11.6%.
10. Rayo Vallecano — projected to finish on 48.7 points, from 7 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 3.2%, bottom three 13%.
11. Athletic Club — projected to finish on 48.4 points, from 7 after 5 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 3.2%, bottom three 13.5%.
12. Racing Santander — projected to finish on 48 points, from 7 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 2.7%, bottom three 15.4%.
13. Espanyol — projected to finish on 47.1 points, from 7 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 2.2%, bottom three 17%.
14. Levante — projected to finish on 46.2 points, from 5 after 5 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1.6%, bottom three 21.9%.
15. Osasuna — projected to finish on 45.9 points, from 7 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1.5%, bottom three 23.3%.
16. Getafe — projected to finish on 45 points, from 5 after 5 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 1.1%, bottom three 26.6%.
17. Celta Vigo — projected to finish on 44.5 points, from 4 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.9%, bottom three 28%.
18. Valencia — projected to finish on 44 points, from 4 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.6%, bottom three 31.7%.
19. Elche — projected to finish on 43.8 points, from 2 after 6 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.9%, bottom three 32.4%.
20. Malaga — projected to finish on 42.2 points, from 3 after 5 played. Wins it 0%, finishes top four 0.4%, bottom three 41.2%.

Top scorers

1. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) — 7 goals, 2 assists.
2. Sergio Camello (Rayo Vallecano) — 6 goals, 1 assist.
3. Roberto Fernández (Espanyol) — 6 goals.
4. Raphinha (Barcelona) — 6 goals, 3 assists.
5. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona) — 6 goals.
6. P. Aubameyang (Deportivo La Coruna) — 5 goals, 2 assists.
7. M. Zabiri (Racing Santander) — 5 goals.
8. Fermín (Barcelona) — 4 goals, 2 assists.
9. L. Boyé (Alaves) — 4 goals.
10. A. Budimir (Osasuna) — 4 goals.
11. M. Díaz (Alaves) — 3 goals, 3 assists.
12. J. Bellingham (Real Madrid) — 3 goals, 2 assists.
13. Álex Baena (Atletico Madrid) — 3 goals, 1 assist.
14. Fer Niño (Elche) — 3 goals.
15. Brugui (Levante) — 3 goals.
16. Álvaro García (Rayo Vallecano) — 2 goals, 2 assists.
17. K. Adeyemi (Barcelona) — 2 goals, 1 assist.
18. G. Simeone (Atletico Madrid) — 2 goals, 1 assist.
19. L. Sučić (Real Sociedad) — 2 goals.
20. Rodrigo Riquelme (Real Betis) — 2 goals.