Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Athletic Club 2-1 Real Sociedad.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Athletic Club, 25% draw, 33% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Athletic Club at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Unai SimónG
- 15Hugo RincónD
- 3Dani VivianD
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 17YuriD
- 7Álex BerenguerM
- 28Peio CanalesM
- 24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
- 10Nico WilliamsM
- 21Maroan SannadiF
- 9I. WilliamsF
- 31J. Louis-JeanD
- 18Mikel JauregizarM
- 34Jesús Vizcay HurtadoF
- 5YerayD
- 22Nico SerranoF
- 12Jesús AresoD
- 13Álex PadillaG
- 4Aitor ParedesD
- 6Beñat PradosM
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 6Jon MartínD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 24L. SučićF
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 22Héctor FortD
- 32Aitor FragaG
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 14T. KuboF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 15Pablo MarínM
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 12J. OchiengF
- 16Jon PachecoD
Form going into Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
La Liga
- W4-0Getafe25 October 2026
- L1-3away to Levante21 October 2026
- D0-0away to Valencia17 October 2026
Real Sociedad
La Liga
- W2-1Levante25 October 2026
- W5-2away to Malaga18 October 2026
- W3-2Deportivo La Coruna11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Athletic Club | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Athletic Club and Real Sociedad have met 7 times in the records we hold, Real Sociedad has won 3 of them to Athletic Club's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Athletic Club won the last one 2–1 on 1 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Real Sociedad | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 13 goals, an average of 1.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Nov 2026
La LigaAthletic Club 2–1 Real Sociedad - 2 Oct 2026
Friendlies ClubsReal Sociedad 0–1 Athletic Club - 4 Mar 2026
Copa del ReyReal Sociedad 1–0 Athletic Club - 11 Feb 2026
Copa del ReyAthletic Club 0–1 Real Sociedad - 1 Feb 2026
La LigaAthletic Club 1–1 Real Sociedad - 1 Nov 2025
La LigaReal Sociedad 3–2 Athletic Club - 4 May 2025
La LigaReal Sociedad 0–0 Athletic Club
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Real Sociedad's attack rates 35% above Athletic Club's, and Athletic Club concede 20% fewer than Real Sociedad. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.32 | 1.12 |
Leading scorers: Athletic Club and Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
GoalsAssists
- Álex Berenguer44
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić40
- O. Óskarsson40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Athletic Club beat Real Sociedad 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Athletic Club at 42%. The goals: Iñaki Williams 14' for Athletic Club, Luka Sučić 30' for Real Sociedad, Alex Berenguer (penalty) 45+2' for Athletic Club. On expected goals it finished 3.12–1.17.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Real Sociedad a 25.7% chance to finish in the top four: 30.1% after a win, 25.1% after a draw, 22.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.5%, 3.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Athletic Club v Real Sociedad has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 41% / 27% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 42% / 25% / 33%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.
- Athletic Club win42%▲ +1
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Real Sociedad win33%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.