Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Deportivo La Coruna 2-1 Osasuna.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Deportivo La Coruna, 27% draw, 22% Osasuna — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Deportivo La Coruna at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Leo RománG
- 2Adrià AltiD
- 15Miguel LoureiroD
- 20J. GiménezD
- 12G. QuagliataD
- 11David MellaM
- 16L. AmatucciM
- 21Mario SorianoM
- 10PekeM
- 19Luismi CruzF
- 32B. NsongoF
- 37NoéM
- 7P. AubameyangF
- 8Diego VillaresM
- 3Arnau ComasD
- 17AngeliñoD
- 25Álvaro FernándezG
- 18Jonathan Asp JensenM
- 23Ximo NavarroD
- 4L. NoubiD
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 19V. RosierD
- 24CatenaD
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 7MoncayolaM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 16Moi GómezM
- 21Jonathan DubasinF
- 17A. BudimirF
- 18Raul MoroF
- 15Diego RicoD
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 31Rafa FernándezG
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 11Kike BarjaF
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
Form going into Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
Deportivo La Coruna
La Liga
- L0-1away to Atletico Madrid24 October 2026
- D1-1Levante16 October 2026
- L2-3away to Real Sociedad11 October 2026
Osasuna
La Liga
- L0-2away to Sevilla26 October 2026
- W2-0Racing Santander18 October 2026
- L2-5away to Real Betis11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 15 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna
Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.
The record
Deportivo La Coruna won the last one 2–1 on 2 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruna | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 |
| Osasuna | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 20 goals, an average of 2.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 Nov 2026
La LigaDeportivo La Coruna 2–1 Osasuna - 16 Dec 2021
Copa del ReyDeportivo La Coruna 1–2 Osasuna - 13 Apr 2019
Segunda DivisiónOsasuna 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna - 24 Nov 2018
Segunda DivisiónDeportivo La Coruna 2–0 Osasuna - 30 Apr 2017
La LigaOsasuna 2–2 Deportivo La Coruna - 18 Dec 2016
La LigaDeportivo La Coruna 2–0 Osasuna - 20 Jan 2013
La LigaOsasuna 2–1 Deportivo La Coruna
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Deportivo La Coruna's attack rates 5% above Osasuna's, and Deportivo La Coruna concede 23% fewer than Osasuna. That gives Deportivo La Coruna the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruna | 0.86 | 0.92 |
| Osasuna | 0.82 | 1.19 |
Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Osasuna
Deportivo La Coruna
GoalsAssists
- P. Aubameyang52
Osasuna
GoalsAssists
- A. Budimir80
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Deportivo La Coruna beat Osasuna 2–1. The model had made a win for Deportivo La Coruna its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Ante Budimir 32' for Osasuna, Mario Soriano 64' for Deportivo La Coruna, Bil Nsongo 87' for Deportivo La Coruna. On expected goals it finished 2.39–1.12.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Deportivo La Coruna a 8.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.2% after a win, 9.0% after a draw, 12.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.2%, 2.2 points lower than before the match.
For Osasuna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 34.8% going in: 25.0% after a win, 35.1% after a draw, 38.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.4%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our La Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Deportivo La Coruna v Osasuna has moved
First published on 19 Oct at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Osasuna's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Deportivo La Coruna win51%▲ +1
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Osasuna win22%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.