24 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

1. FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Voith-Arena, Heidenheim
Referee: Patrick Schwengers, Germany
Full time1 – 1

Final score: 1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 Energie Cottbus.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% 1. FC Heidenheim, 22% draw, 31% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 2.13, 4.55 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Heidenheim at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Heidenheim6%Draw89%Energie Cottbus5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jan Schoppner
11'
16'
Marcel Lotka
37'
King Samuel Manu
40'
⚽Lucas Copadoassist: Tolcay Cigerci
🔁Julian Niehuesout: Marcel Costly
45'
⚽Oualid Mhamdiassist: Paul Hennrich
49'
51'
🔁Tim Campulkaout: Ryan Malone
🔁Mikkel Kaufmannout: Alessandro Vogt
65'
65'
🔁Leon Guwaraout: Jannis Boziaris
65'
🔁Fousseny Doumbiaout: Jannis Zaydan
Michael Heule
69'
🔁Paul Hennrichout: Mathias Honsak
79'
83'
🔁Dmytro Bogdanovout: Christian Kinsombi
🔁Michael Heuleout: Leart Paqarda
86'

Match stats — 1. FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus

57%Possession43%
34Shots7
8On target3
15Corners2
3.76xG0.56

Goals against chances

1. FC Heidenheim1 from 3.76 xGless than the chances were worth
Energie Cottbus1 from 0.56 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2
  • 33T. DähneG
  • 22O. MhamdiD
  • 6P. MainkaD
  • 19J. FöhrenbachD
  • 27M. HeuleD
  • 8P. HennrichM
  • 3J. SchöppnerM
  • 16J. NiehuesM
  • 10C. ContehM
  • 11B. ZivzivadzeF
  • 29M. KaufmannF
Substitutes
  • 1Frank FellerG
  • 24M. CostlyF
  • 2M. BuschD
  • 17M. HonsakF
  • 20L. KerberM
  • 28Adam KölleD
  • 23L. PaqaradaD
  • 4T. SierslebenD
  • 18A. VogtF
Coach: F. Schmidt
Energie Cottbus 4-4-2
  • 1M. LotkaG
  • 3H. RorigD
  • 2K. ManuD
  • 4T. CampulkaD
  • 25L. GuwaraD
  • 10T. CiğerciM
  • 21Luca ErleinM
  • 8Lukas MichelbrinkM
  • 23Fousseny DoumbiaM
  • 13Dmytro BohdanovF
  • 9L. CopadoF
Substitutes
  • 22Fabian BalgM
  • 7C. KinsombiF
  • 16R. MaloneD
  • 42J. ZaydanD
  • 43A. ReschkeM
  • 29K. KratzschG
  • 30Max BöhnkeG
  • 19J. BoziarisM
Coach: C. Wollitz

Form going into 1. FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus

1. FC Heidenheim

2. Bundesliga

  • L1-3away to VfL Wolfsburg17 October 2026
  • D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern9 October 2026

Energie Cottbus

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-11. FC Nürnberg16 October 2026
  • L1-3away to SV Darmstadt 9810 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
71. FC Heidenheim114431920-116
12Energie Cottbus112541820-211

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: 1. FC Heidenheim and Energie Cottbus

1. FC Heidenheim

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 19 league goals as a side.

Energie Cottbus

GoalsAssists

  • T. Ciğerci52
  • J. Butler51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

1. FC Heidenheim and Energie Cottbus drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Heidenheim at 47% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Lucas Copado 40' for Energie Cottbus, Oualid Mhamdi 49' for 1. FC Heidenheim. On expected goals it finished 3.76–0.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1. FC Heidenheim a 9.6% chance to finish in the top two: 11.3% after a win, 8.8% after a draw, 6.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 8.8%, 0.8 points lower than before the match.

For Energie Cottbus the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 7.5% going in: 5.4% after a win, 7.5% after a draw, 8.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.5%.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on 1. FC Heidenheim v Energie Cottbus has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 54% / 22% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 47% / 22% / 31%: the biggest move is 1. FC Heidenheim's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. 1. FC Heidenheim win47%▼ −7
  2. Draw22%=
  3. Energie Cottbus win31%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.