24 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Avnet-Arena, Magdeburg
Referee: Felix Wagner, Germany
Full time6 – 1

Final score: 1. FC Magdeburg 6-1 Karlsruher SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% 1. FC Magdeburg, 22% draw, 24% Karlsruher SC — fair odds of 1.85, 4.55 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Magdeburg at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Magdeburg99%Draw1%Karlsruher SC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mateusz Zukowski
6'
9'
•Noel Eichinger
37'
Sandro Tremoulet
Barış Atik
39'
⚽Mateusz Zukowski (pen)
39'
45'
🔁Sebastian Jungout: Rafael Pinto Pedrosa
45'
🔁Noel Eichingerout: Lilian Egloff
•Pierre Nadjombe
48'
⚽Mateusz Zukowski (pen)
51'
⚽Garcia MacNultyassist: Barış Atik
54'
56'
🔁Sandro Tremouletout: Louey Ben Farhat
56'
🔁Viktor Berghout: Deniz Ofli
⚽Emmanuel Iyohaassist: Torben Müsel
59'
🔁Mateusz Zukowskiout: Roko Simic
64'
🔁Alexander Nollenbergerout: Herbert Bockhorn
64'
⚽Roko Simicassist: Torben Müsel
66'
🔁Barış Atikout: Richmond Tachie
73'
🔁Torben Müselout: Falko Michel
73'
79'
🔁Kevin Wiethaupout: Tim Civeja
🔁Luka Hyryläinenout: Leon Mergner
80'
82'
⚽Deniz Ofliassist: Shio Fukuda
⚽Leon Mergner
90+3'

Match stats — 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC

51%Possession49%
16Shots12
8On target4
4Corners4
2.75xG0.73

Goals against chances

1. FC Magdeburg6 from 2.75 xGmore than the chances were worth
Karlsruher SC1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
  • 1D. ReimannG
  • 28P. NadjombeD
  • 5T. MüllerD
  • 3A. MacNultyD
  • 17A. NollenbergerD
  • 38L. HyryläinenM
  • 11F. ChávezM
  • 26T. MüselM
  • 8E. IyohaF
  • 22M. ŻukowskiF
  • 23B. AtikF
Substitutes
  • 35Magnus Elias BaarsF
  • 7H. BockhornD
  • 15D. HeberD
  • 6P. JaeckelD
  • 30N. KruthG
  • 33Leon MergnerM
  • 21F. MichelM
  • 9R. ŠimićF
  • 29R. TachieF
Coach: P. Sander
Karlsruher SC 4-2-3-1
  • 1H. BernatG
  • 22C. KobaldD
  • 28M. FrankeD
  • 24S. TrémouletD
  • 33V. BerghD
  • 7K. WiethaupM
  • 6S. VäänänenM
  • 2S. JungM
  • 10M. WanitzekM
  • 11N. EichingerM
  • 13S. FukudaF
Substitutes
  • 30R. HimmelmannG
  • 3D. OfliD
  • 36Rafael Pinto PedrosaD
  • 15Paul SchollD
  • 26D. H. ZorM
  • 25L. EgloffM
  • 23T. CivejaM
  • 19Louey Ben FarhatM
  • 37J. PonenteF
Coach: M. Senft

Form going into 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC

1. FC Magdeburg

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-2away to Dynamo Dresden18 October 2026
  • W3-0Hannover 9610 October 2026

Karlsruher SC

2. Bundesliga

  • W4-0SV Darmstadt 9818 October 2026
  • L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
41. FC Magdeburg116232514+1120
16Karlsruher SC113261524-911

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Karlsruher SC

  • 1 March 20261. FC Magdeburg 1–3 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
  • 27 September 2025Karlsruher SC 1–0 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 22 February 2025Karlsruher SC 3–1 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 22 September 20241. FC Magdeburg 2–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
  • 17 March 2024Karlsruher SC 7–0 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 7 October 2023FC Magdeburg 1–1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Magdeburg and Karlsruher SC

1. FC Magdeburg

GoalsAssists

  • E. Iyoha60
  • M. Żukowski60

Karlsruher SC

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

1. FC Magdeburg beat Karlsruher SC 6–1. The model had made a win for 1. FC Magdeburg its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Mateusz Zukowski (penalty) 39' for 1. FC Magdeburg, Mateusz Zukowski (penalty) 51' for 1. FC Magdeburg, Garcia MacNulty 54' for 1. FC Magdeburg, Emmanuel Iyoha 59' for 1. FC Magdeburg, Roko Simic 66' for 1. FC Magdeburg, Deniz Ofli 82' for Karlsruher SC, Leon Mergner 90+3' for 1. FC Magdeburg. On expected goals it finished 2.75–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1. FC Magdeburg a 11.7% chance to finish in the top two: 13.2% after a win, 10.5% after a draw, 7.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.2%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

For Karlsruher SC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 27.0% going in: 20.3% after a win, 25.0% after a draw, 29.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.3%, 2.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.