Estrela vs Casa Pia Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Estrela 0-2 Casa Pia.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Estrela, 26% draw, 20% Casa Pia — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Estrela at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Estrela vs Casa Pia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 24Léo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Patrick LuanD
- 5S. LekovićD
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 99A. MarcusM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 10I. StoicaM
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 80AlissonF
- 79A. ChernevD
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 22David GriloG
- 6K. Höög JanssonM
- 19Joan JordánM
- 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
- 28T. MoustierM
- 1P. SequeiraG
- 18GeraldesD
- 3KalyD
- 43David SousaD
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 80L. OforiM
- 24S. PérezM
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 77B. PauwelsM
- 90CassianoF
- 19K. PrietoF
- 17E. MaurinF
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 29J. LivolantF
- 27Kaique RochaD
- 98JPM
- 20A. JattaF
- 4João GoulartD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
Form going into Estrela vs Casa Pia
Estrela
Primeira Liga
- L0-1away to Arouca11 October 2026
- L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026
Casa Pia
Primeira Liga
- L0-1Santa Clara10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Estoril20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Casa Pia vs Estrela
Casa Pia and Estrela have met 7 times in the records we hold, Casa Pia has won 4 of them to Estrela's 3.
The record
Casa Pia won the last one 2–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
| Estrela | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Primeira LigaEstrela 0–2 Casa Pia - 18 Jul 2026
Friendlies ClubsEstrela 1–2 Casa Pia - 20 Mar 2026
Primeira LigaEstrela 4–0 Casa Pia - 1 Nov 2025
Primeira LigaCasa Pia 3–5 Estrela - 9 Feb 2025
Primeira LigaCasa Pia 1–0 Estrela - 31 Aug 2024
Primeira LigaEstrela 0–1 Casa Pia - 8 Mar 2024
Primeira LigaEstrela 3–1 Casa Pia
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Estrela's attack rates 57% above Casa Pia's, and Casa Pia concede 15% fewer than Estrela. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Estrela and Casa Pia
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- L. Antonetti51
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
Casa Pia
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Casa Pia won 2–0 at Estrela. The model had leaned towards a win for Estrela at 54% and given a win for Casa Pia 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: João Rego 31' for Casa Pia, Lawrence Ofori 90+2' for Casa Pia. On expected goals it finished 1.72–0.81.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Estrela a 8.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.2% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 12.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.0%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.
For Casa Pia the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 72.7% going in: 64.5% after a win, 72.3% after a draw, 76.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.5%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Estrela v Casa Pia has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 55% / 24% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is the draw, up 2 points.
- Estrela win54%▼ −1
- Draw26%▲ +2
- Casa Pia win20%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.