24 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

GIL Vicente vs FC Porto Primeira Liga prediction & result

Barcelos
Referee: Luís Godinho, Portugal
Full time0 – 1

Final score: GIL Vicente 0-1 FC Porto.

Before kick-off the model made it 18% GIL Vicente, 27% draw, 55% FC Porto — fair odds of 5.56, 3.70 and 1.82.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

FC Porto at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

GIL Vicente0%Draw2%FC Porto98%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45'
🔁Gabri Veigaout: Hwang In-Beom
56'
Pablo Rosario
60'
🔁André Silvaout: Samuel Aghehowa
🔁Andreas Lausenout: Jose Carlos Natario Ferreira
60'
🔁Walace Françaout: Mohamed Kaba
60'
🔁Joelson Fernandesout: Gil Pinto Martins
60'
63'
⚽Borja Sainz
72'
🔁Pablo Rosarioout: Alan Gonzalo Varela
72'
🔁Borja Sainzout: Santiago Giménez
🔁Diogo Priosteout: Tidjany Chabrol Toure
75'
🔁Santiago García Gonzálezout: Guilherme Gomes
76'
Marvin Elimbi Gilbert
84'

Match stats — GIL Vicente vs FC Porto

42%Possession58%
10Shots12
2On target4
3Corners8
0.43xG1.13

Goals against chances

GIL Vicente0 from 0.43 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC Porto1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1
  • 30LucãoG
  • 47Ricardo EsgaioD
  • 4M. Elimbi GilbertD
  • 39Jonathan BuatuD
  • 45David MoreiraD
  • 12A. LausenM
  • 86Diogo Ferreira PriosteM
  • 77MuriloM
  • 10Santi GarcíaM
  • 11Joelson FernandesM
  • 9WalaceF
Substitutes
  • 2José SilvaD
  • 94SamuelG
  • 20Gil Pinto MartinsM
  • 1A. PicornellG
  • 27A. MoreiraF
  • 82Gonçalo Maia PereiraM
  • 99M. KabaF
  • 19GuilhermeM
  • 32M. FernándezM
Coach: Luís Pinto
FC Porto 4-3-3
  • 99Diogo CostaG
  • 20Alberto BaioD
  • 5J. BednarekD
  • 4J. KiwiorD
  • 12Z. SanusiD
  • 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
  • 13P. RosarioM
  • 10Gabri VeigaM
  • 11Pepê AquinoF
  • 19André SilvaF
  • 17Borja SainzF
Substitutes
  • 14Cláudio RamosG
  • 22A. VarelaM
  • 52Martim FernandesD
  • 42S. FofanaM
  • 29S. GiménezF
  • 16Hwang In-BeomM
  • 74Francisco MouraD
  • 18N. PérezD
  • 9SamuF
Coach: F. Farioli

Form going into GIL Vicente vs FC Porto

GIL Vicente

Primeira Liga

  • W2-1away to SC Braga19 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Moreirense9 October 2026

FC Porto

Primeira Liga

  • W2-1away to Maritimo10 October 2026
  • W3-1Benfica20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7GIL Vicente11533108+218
1FC Porto111100275+2233

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Porto vs GIL Vicente

FC Porto and GIL Vicente have met 7 times in the records we hold, FC Porto has won 4 of them to GIL Vicente's 2, with 1 drawn.

The record

FC Porto won the last one 1–0 on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
FC Porto412115
GIL Vicente214511

Between them these 7 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.29 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Primeira Liga    GIL Vicente 0–1 FC Porto
  • 22 Jul 2026
    Friendlies Clubs    GIL Vicente 1–0 FC Porto
  • 26 Jan 2026
    Primeira Liga    FC Porto 3–0 GIL Vicente
  • 18 Aug 2025
    Primeira Liga    GIL Vicente 0–2 FC Porto
  • 19 Jan 2025
    Primeira Liga    GIL Vicente 3–1 FC Porto
  • 10 Aug 2024
    Primeira Liga    FC Porto 3–0 GIL Vicente
  • 25 Feb 2024
    Primeira Liga    GIL Vicente 1–1 FC Porto

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, FC Porto's attack rates 84% above GIL Vicente's, and FC Porto concede 32% fewer than GIL Vicente. That gives FC Porto the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
FC Porto1.490.59
GIL Vicente0.810.87

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: GIL Vicente and FC Porto

GIL Vicente

No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

FC Porto

GoalsAssists

  • Borja Sainz61
  • Gabri Veiga54
  • André Silva42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Porto won 1–0 at GIL Vicente. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for FC Porto at 55%. The goal: Borja Sainz 63' for FC Porto. Sent off: Marvin Elimbi Gilbert (GIL Vicente) 84'. On expected goals it finished 0.43–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Porto a 61.3% chance to finish top of the regular season: 64.5% after a win, 57.5% after a draw, 52.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 64.5%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.