24 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Olympiastadion, Berlin
Referee: Cristian Ballweg, Germany
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Hertha BSC 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Hertha BSC, 24% draw, 25% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 1.96, 4.17 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Hertha BSC at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hertha BSC6%Draw90%Arminia Bielefeld4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
Jonas Thomas Kersken
41'
Joel Felix
🔁Deyovaisio Zeefuikout: Julian Eitschberger
64'
🔁Oluwaseun Adewumiout: Farid Alfa-Ruprecht
64'
🔁Sebastian Gronningout: Jan Luca Schuler
64'
76'
🔁Leon Jensenout: Sam Schreck
76'
🔁Marius Worlout: Jannik Rochelt
Paul Seguin
78'
🔁Jón Dagur Þórsteinssonout: Soufian Gouram
80'
82'
🔁Monju Thaddäus Momuluhout: Henri Koudossou
82'
🔁Joel Felixout: Leon Schneider
•Jan Luca Schuler
85'
🔁Kevin Sessaout: Selim Telib
87'
89'
🔁Joel Grodowskiout: Tim Handwerker
⚽Josip Brekalo (pen)
90+2'

Match stats — Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld

71%Possession29%
15Shots6
4On target1
4Corners2
1.98xG0.37

Goals against chances

Hertha BSC1 from 1.98 xGless than the chances were worth
Arminia Bielefeld0 from 0.37 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1
  • 35M. GersbeckG
  • 42D. ZeefuikD
  • 44L. GechterD
  • 27N. KolbeD
  • 22M. PedersenD
  • 30P. SeguinM
  • 8K. SessaM
  • 19O. AdewumiM
  • 23J. ÞorsteinssonM
  • 7J. BrekaloM
  • 17S. GrønningF
Substitutes
  • 20Farid Alfa-RuprechtF
  • 2J. EitschbergerD
  • 43T. GollerG
  • 33S. GouramM
  • 34M. GrotheD
  • 41P. KlemensD
  • 28Jelani Isi NdiF
  • 18L. SchulerF
  • 47Selim TelibM
Coach: S. Leitl
Arminia Bielefeld 5-3-2
  • 1J. KerskenG
  • 2F. HagmannD
  • 19M. GroßerD
  • 5M. BauerD
  • 3J. FelixD
  • 17A. SickerD
  • 31L. JensenM
  • 21S. RussoM
  • 38M. WörlM
  • 14M. MomuluhF
  • 11J. GrodowskiF
Substitutes
  • 27Benjamin Bediako BoakyeF
  • 29T. HandwerkerD
  • 7H. KoudossouD
  • 6M. MehlemM
  • 18L. OppermannG
  • 10J. RocheltM
  • 23L. SchneiderD
  • 8S. SchreckM
  • 30I. YoungF
Coach: Oliver Kirch

Form going into Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld

Hertha BSC

2. Bundesliga

  • D0-0away to Holstein Kiel16 October 2026
  • W2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth11 October 2026

Arminia Bielefeld

2. Bundesliga

  • W2-1VfL Osnabrück18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to VfL Bochum11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Hertha BSC111010259+1631
6Arminia Bielefeld115241816+217

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld

  • 17 May 2026Arminia Bielefeld 6–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • 19 December 2025Hertha BSC 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • 30 April 2022Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
  • 11 December 2021Hertha Berlin 2–0 Arminia BielefeldBundesliga
  • 9 May 2021Hertha Berlin 0–0 Arminia BielefeldBundesliga
  • 10 January 2021Arminia Bielefeld 1–0 Hertha BerlinBundesliga

Leading scorers: Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld

Hertha BSC

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brekalo55
  • O. Adewumi50
  • S. Grønning41

Arminia Bielefeld

GoalsAssists

  • J. Grodowski72

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hertha BSC beat Arminia Bielefeld 1–0. The model had made a win for Hertha BSC its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Josip Brekalo (penalty) 90+2' for Hertha BSC. On expected goals it finished 1.98–0.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hertha BSC a 56.0% chance to finish in the top two: 61.1% after a win, 51.7% after a draw, 48.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 61.1%, 5.1 points higher than before the match.

For Arminia Bielefeld the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 4.4% going in: 6.4% after a win, 3.6% after a draw, 3.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.2%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 53% / 23% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 24% / 25%: the biggest move is Hertha BSC's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Hertha BSC win51%▼ −2
  2. Draw24%▲ +1
  3. Arminia Bielefeld win25%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.