24 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nuremberg
Referee: Max Burda, Germany
Full time0 – 1

Final score: 1. FC Nürnberg 0-1 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% 1. FC Nürnberg, 28% draw, 27% 1. FC Kaiserslautern — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Nürnberg at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Nürnberg0%Draw5%1. FC Kaiserslautern95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Ibrahim Kanate
🔁Fynn Ottoout: Styopa Mkrtchyan
37'
45'
🔁Ibrahim Kanateout: Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta
45'
🔁Miloš Lukovićout: Erencan Yardimci
56'
Paul Joly
58'
⚽Erencan Yardimciassist: Mario Sauer
🔁Rayan Ghriebout: William Bøving
67'
67'
🔁Erencan Yardimciout: Fabian Kunze
78'
🔁Naatan Skyttäout: Mergim Berisha
78'
🔁Mario Sauerout: Marlon Ritter
🔁Julian Justvanout: Sigurd Haugen
78'
🔁Rafael Lubachout: Can Yahya Moustfa
78'
88'
Maxwell Gyamfi
90+5'
Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta
90+6'
Marlon Ritter

Match stats — 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

67%Possession33%
31Shots12
8On target7
11Corners3
2.18xG0.88

Goals against chances

1. FC Nürnberg0 from 2.18 xGless than the chances were worth
1. FC Kaiserslautern1 from 0.88 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Nürnberg 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. ReichertG
  • 32T. JanischD
  • 4A. KalogeropoulosD
  • 20F. OttoD
  • 41E. PorstnerD
  • 6A. MarhievM
  • 8J. FernandezM
  • 7R. GhriebM
  • 10J. JustvanM
  • 18Rafael LubachM
  • 19P. ScobelF
Substitutes
  • 11W. BøvingF
  • 14Andrea CeresoliD
  • 9S. HaugenF
  • 13Robin LisewskiG
  • 21G. MasourasD
  • 5S. MkrtchyanD
  • 28Can Yaha MoustfaF
  • 16Marko SoldicM
  • 35M. Kornwachs BarjuanM
Coach: M. Klose
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. KrahlG
  • 33J. ElvediD
  • 4M. GyamfiD
  • 3A. MurphyD
  • 26P. JolyM
  • 8S. ŞahinM
  • 21M. SauerM
  • 22Mika HaasM
  • 15N. SkyttäM
  • 11I. KanateM
  • 45M. LukovićF
Substitutes
  • 6F. KunzeM
  • 9I. PrtajinF
  • 7M. RitterM
  • 37Leon RobinsonM
  • 39T. Fidjeu-TazemetaM
  • 17E. YardımcıF
  • 20M. BerishaF
  • 2S. AstaD
  • 34Y. OnohiolG
Coach: T. Lieberknecht

Form going into 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

1. FC Nürnberg

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to Energie Cottbus16 October 2026
  • D4-4VfL Wolfsburg10 October 2026

1. FC Kaiserslautern

2. Bundesliga

  • W2-0VfL Bochum17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to 1. FC Heidenheim9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
21. FC Nürnberg117312613+1324
31. FC Kaiserslautern11632107+321

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

  • 21 March 20261. FC Nürnberg 3–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 26 October 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 12 April 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 1–2 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
  • 8 November 20241. FC Nürnberg 0–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 18 February 2024FC Nurnberg 1–1 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 5 December 2023FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 FC NurnbergDFB Pokal

Leading scorers: 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern

1. FC Nürnberg

GoalsAssists

  • M. Zoma70
  • P. Scobel61

1. FC Kaiserslautern

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

1. FC Kaiserslautern won 1–0 at 1. FC Nürnberg. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Nürnberg at 45% and given a win for 1. FC Kaiserslautern 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Erencan Yardimci 58' for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. On expected goals it finished 2.18–0.88.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1. FC Nürnberg a 48.4% chance to finish in the top two: 53.6% after a win, 46.0% after a draw, 41.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.8%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

For 1. FC Kaiserslautern the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 16.6% going in: 22.1% after a win, 16.8% after a draw, 12.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.1%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on 1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 46% / 29% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is 1. FC Kaiserslautern's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. 1. FC Nürnberg win45%▼ −1
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. 1. FC Kaiserslautern win27%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.