VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Osnabrück 0-1 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% VfL Osnabrück, 30% draw, 34% 1. FC Kaiserslautern — fair odds of 2.78, 3.33 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
VfL Osnabrück at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 32J. KrumreyG
- 27R. FabinskiD
- 24J. MüllerD
- 25N. WiemannD
- 28K. FaberM
- 18L. FlachM
- 15B. JacobsenM
- 42J. GómezM
- 21A. BeckM
- 11R. MeißnerM
- 7D. KyerehF
- 4J. Abu HannaD
- 10I. BadjieM
- 20T. JanottaD
- 31P. KammerbauerM
- 8L. MünstM
- 17L. RaimundF
- 22B. RiesselmannF
- 1N. SauterG
- 26F. WagnerM
- 1J. KrahlG
- 33J. ElvediD
- 14J. RasmussenD
- 3A. MurphyD
- 26P. JolyM
- 6F. KunzeM
- 8S. ŞahinM
- 22Mika HaasM
- 15N. SkyttäM
- 21M. SauerM
- 9I. PrtajinF
- 39T. Fidjeu-TazemetaM
- 17E. YardımcıF
- 37Leon RobinsonM
- 41D. SchrammM
- 7M. RitterM
- 45M. LukovićF
- 11I. KanateF
- 2S. AstaD
- 34Y. OnohiolG
Form going into VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
VfL Osnabrück
2. Bundesliga
- L0-2away to VfL Wolfsburg31 October 2026
- W3-0SpVgg Greuther Fürth25 October 2026
- L1-2away to Arminia Bielefeld18 October 2026
- D1-1Dynamo Dresden10 October 2026
1. FC Kaiserslautern
2. Bundesliga
- L0-3Hertha BSC31 October 2026
- W1-0away to 1. FC Nürnberg24 October 2026
- W2-0VfL Bochum17 October 2026
- D0-0away to 1. FC Heidenheim9 October 2026
What these results say
- VfL Osnabrück failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- VfL Osnabrück conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for 1. FC Kaiserslautern had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | VfL Osnabrück | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 10 March 2024FC Kaiserslautern 3–2 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
- 1 October 2023VfL Osnabrück 2–2 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
- 5 March 2022VfL Osnabrück 0–1 FC Kaiserslautern3. Liga
- 25 September 2021FC Kaiserslautern 2–0 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 24 March 2019FC Kaiserslautern 1–3 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
- 6 October 2018VfL Osnabrück 2–0 FC Kaiserslautern3. Liga
Leading scorers: VfL Osnabrück and 1. FC Kaiserslautern
VfL Osnabrück
GoalsAssists
- R. Meißner41
1. FC Kaiserslautern
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
1. FC Kaiserslautern won 1–0 at VfL Osnabrück. The model had leaned towards a win for VfL Osnabrück at 36% and given a win for 1. FC Kaiserslautern 34%. The goal: Thierry Fidjeu Tazemeta 55' for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. On expected goals it finished 1.27–1.45.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave VfL Osnabrück a 8.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 5.5% after a win, 8.3% after a draw, 11.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.0%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
For 1. FC Kaiserslautern the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 10.1% going in: 12.8% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.8%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on VfL Osnabrück v 1. FC Kaiserslautern has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 32% / 29% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 30% / 34%: the biggest move is 1. FC Kaiserslautern's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- VfL Osnabrück win36%▲ +4
- Draw30%▲ +1
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern win34%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.