8 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

FC Porto B vs Portimonense Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio Luis Filipe Menezes, Vila Nova de Gaia
Referee: Bruno Pires Costa
Full time0 – 1

Final score: FC Porto B 0-1 Portimonense.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% FC Porto B, 26% draw, 23% Portimonense — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Porto B at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Porto B0%Draw5%Portimonense95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Luis Gomes
37'
Eduardo Ferreira
44'
🔁Eduardo Ferreiraout: Trofim Melnichenko
59'
🔁Duarte Cunhaout: Cardoso varela
59'
🔁Mateus Mideout: Bernardo Lima
60'
66'
🔁Welinton Juniorout: Dânio Djassi
66'
🔁Yanis da Rochaout: Ericson Araujo Da Costa Filho
🔁Joao·Teixeiraout: Tiago Gonçalves da Silva
69'
77'
⚽Samuel Neves Bengue
79'
🔁Samuel Yépié Yépiéout: Diogo Cabral
79'
🔁Shoya Nakajimaout: Joao casimiro
🔁Kauê Rodrigues Pessanhaout: Anha Cande
80'
89'
🔁Felipe Faveroout: Jarleysom Ferreira de Amurim

Match stats — FC Porto B vs Portimonense

41%Possession59%
12Shots15
4On target5
6Corners10

Line-ups

FC Porto B 4-2-3-1
  • 50J. AfonsoG
  • 64Luís GomesD
  • 54António RibeiroD
  • 93Tiago FerreiraD
  • 55Y. PereiraD
  • 56KauêM
  • 92João Pedro Moreira TeixeiraM
  • 57Duarte CunhaF
  • 89Mateus MideF
  • 97Gabriel VeronF
  • 53E. FerreiraF
Substitutes
  • 41G. SilvaG
  • 95Anhá CandéF
  • 91Gonçalo RibeiroG
  • 73Hjalte FroholdtD
  • 84Martim CunhaD
  • 61Domingos MuxitoF
  • 66Bernardo LimaM
  • 70Eirik GranaasM
  • 43T. MelnichenkoF
Coach: João Brandão
Portimonense 3-4-3
  • 1DuduG
  • 4Italo CabelinhoD
  • 21Yanis da RochaM
  • 6S. NevesD
  • 2EdneyF
  • 15XavierM
  • 80Felipe FaveroM
  • 17João ReisD
  • 9S. Yépié YépiéM
  • 93Welinton JúniorF
  • 10S. NakajimaF
Substitutes
  • 65WellingtonG
  • 70G. AguasF
  • 19Midana CassamaF
  • 7Danio DjassiF
  • 11Diogo CabralF
  • 8João CasimiroM
  • 25EricsonM
  • 73Marlon JúniorD
  • 36Thauan LaraD
Coach: Alex

Form going into FC Porto B vs Portimonense

FC Porto B

Segunda Liga

  • L1-2away to Amarante31 October 2026
  • D1-1União de Leiria25 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Leixoes10 October 2026
  • D2-2Vizela14 September 2026

Portimonense

Segunda Liga

  • D0-0Torreense31 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Sporting CP B24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Amarante10 October 2026
  • L0-2Tondela12 September 2026

What these results say

  • FC Porto B scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • FC Porto B conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for FC Porto B.
  • Portimonense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Portimonense failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Portimonense conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16FC Porto B10226818-108
10Portimonense10424710-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Porto B vs Portimonense

  • 21 March 2026Portimonense 2–1 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
  • 23 November 2025FC Porto B 1–0 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
  • 11 May 2025Portimonense 0–3 FC Porto BSegunda Liga
  • 12 January 2025FC Porto B 1–2 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
  • 5 March 2017FC Porto B 1–0 PortimonenseSegunda Liga
  • 28 September 2016Portimonense 3–0 FC Porto BSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: FC Porto B and Portimonense

FC Porto B

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Portimonense

GoalsAssists

  • Danio Djassi11
  • Welinton Júnior10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Portimonense won 1–0 at FC Porto B. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Porto B at 51% and given a win for Portimonense 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Samuel Neves Bengue 77' for Portimonense.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Porto B a 16.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.7% after a win, 18.8% after a draw, 21.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 21.0%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.

For Portimonense the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.8% going in: 16.6% after a win, 23.1% after a draw, 27.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.6%, 8.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Porto B v Portimonense has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 54% / 24% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is FC Porto B's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. FC Porto B win51%▼ −3
  2. Draw26%▲ +2
  3. Portimonense win23%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.