8 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Avnet-Arena, Magdeburg
Referee: Tom Bauer
Full time4 – 1

Final score: 1. FC Magdeburg 4-1 FC St. Pauli.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% 1. FC Magdeburg, 25% draw, 25% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Magdeburg at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Magdeburg99%Draw1%FC St. Pauli0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Mateusz Zukowskiassist: Torben Müsel
27'
45'
🔁Connor Metcalfeout: Samuel Klein
45'
🔁Mathias Rasmussenout: Youssoupha Niang
🔁Leon Mergnerout: Felipe Chávez
45'
⚽Garcia MacNultyassist: Felipe Chávez
48'
56'
David Nemeth
Tobias Müller
57'
58'
⚽Eric Smithassist: Branimir Hrgota
60'
Joel Chima Fujita
🔁Tobias Müllerout: Daniel Heber
61'
61'
🔁Abdoulie Ceesayout: Martijn Kaars
Garcia MacNulty
61'
65'
Eric Smith
🔁Alexander Nollenbergerout: Herbert Bockhorn
78'
82'
Louis Oppie
85'
🔁Branimir Hrgotaout: Taichi Hara
🔁Mateusz Zukowskiout: Roko Simic
88'
🔁Emmanuel Iyohaout: Richmond Tachie
88'
88'
🔁Joel Chima Fujitaout: Ricky-Jade Jones
⚽Herbert Bockhornassist: Luka Hyryläinen
89'
⚽Roko Simicassist: Pierre Nadjombe
90+1'
90+6'
Samuel Klein

Match stats — 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli

51%Possession49%
11Shots12
6On target3
3Corners7
2.96xG1.27

Goals against chances

1. FC Magdeburg4 from 2.96 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC St. Pauli1 from 1.27 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
  • 1D. ReimannG
  • 28P. NadjombeD
  • 5T. MüllerD
  • 3A. MacNultyD
  • 17A. NollenbergerD
  • 26T. MüselM
  • 38L. HyryläinenM
  • 33Leon MergnerM
  • 8E. IyohaF
  • 22M. ŻukowskiF
  • 23B. AtikF
Substitutes
  • 35Magnus Elias BaarsF
  • 7H. BockhornD
  • 11F. ChávezM
  • 15D. HeberD
  • 6P. JaeckelD
  • 30N. KruthG
  • 14Tony ReitzM
  • 9R. ŠimićF
  • 29R. TachieF
Coach: P. Sander
FC St. Pauli 3-4-1-2
  • 1B. VollG
  • 8E. SmithD
  • 4D. NemethD
  • 21L. RitzkaD
  • 11A. PyrkaM
  • 20M. RasmussenM
  • 16J. FujitaM
  • 23L. OppieM
  • 24C. MetcalfeM
  • 10B. HrgotaF
  • 9Abdoulie CeesayF
Substitutes
  • 7Y. NiangF
  • 33D. MitovG
  • 6M. MathisenD
  • 22Samuel KleinM
  • 19M. KaarsF
  • 26R. JonesF
  • 18T. HaraF
  • 25A. DźwigałaD
  • 15T. AndoD
Coach: M. Rapp

Form going into 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli

1. FC Magdeburg

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to SV Darmstadt 9831 October 2026
  • W6-1Karlsruher SC24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Dynamo Dresden18 October 2026
  • W3-0Hannover 9610 October 2026

FC St. Pauli

2. Bundesliga

  • L1-31. FC Nürnberg1 November 2026
  • D0-0away to SV Darmstadt 9823 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Hannover 9617 October 2026
  • W2-0Karlsruher SC11 October 2026

What these results say

  • 1. FC Magdeburg scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 1. FC Magdeburg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC St. Pauli failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC St. Pauli scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for FC St. Pauli had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
41. FC Magdeburg116232514+1120
9FC St. Pauli112631316-312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli

  • 10 February 2024FC Magdeburg 1–0 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 27 August 2023FC St. Pauli 0–0 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 18 February 2023FC Magdeburg 1–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 14 August 2022FC St. Pauli 3–0 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 7 August 2021FC Magdeburg 2–3 FC St. PauliDFB Pokal
  • 22 December 2018FC St. Pauli 4–1 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli

1. FC Magdeburg

GoalsAssists

  • E. Iyoha60
  • M. Żukowski60

FC St. Pauli

GoalsAssists

  • Abdoulie Ceesay50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

1. FC Magdeburg beat FC St. Pauli 4–1. The model had made a win for 1. FC Magdeburg its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Mateusz Zukowski 27' for 1. FC Magdeburg, Garcia MacNulty 48' for 1. FC Magdeburg, Eric Smith 58' for FC St. Pauli, Herbert Bockhorn 89' for 1. FC Magdeburg, Roko Simic 90+1' for 1. FC Magdeburg. Sent off: Louis Oppie (FC St. Pauli) 82'. On expected goals it finished 2.96–1.27.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1. FC Magdeburg a 16.6% chance to finish in the top two: 18.7% after a win, 14.7% after a draw, 12.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.7%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For FC St. Pauli the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 6.1% going in: 3.1% after a win, 5.2% after a draw, 7.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.1%, 1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on 1. FC Magdeburg v FC St. Pauli has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 44% / 27% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 25% / 25%: the biggest move is 1. FC Magdeburg's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. 1. FC Magdeburg win50%▲ +6
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. FC St. Pauli win25%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.