8 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio Marcolino de Castro, Santa Maria da Feira
Referee: Jose Rodrigues
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Feirense 1-0 Lusitânia Lourosa.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Feirense, 30% draw, 39% Lusitânia Lourosa — fair odds of 3.23, 3.33 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lusitânia Lourosa at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Feirense96%Draw4%Lusitânia Lourosa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Pedro Henrique de Oliveira da Silvaassist: Henrique Pereira
5'
João Queirós
15'
19'
Arsénio Nunes
22'
Bruno Faria
Mohamed Diaby
22'
28'
Dylan João Raymond Collard
46'
🔁Paulo Miguel·Gomes Ferreiraout: Saliou Mandiang
🔁Diogo Mendesout: Gui Santos
53'
🔁Henrique Pereiraout: Luiz Gustavo
62'
66'
🔁Arsénio Nunesout: Iuri Moreira
🔁Pedro Henrique de Oliveira da Silvaout: Antonio Leal Mateos
69'
Antonio Leal Mateos
69'
75'
🔁João Santosout: João Silva
76'
🔁Francisco machadoout: Luis Rocha
🔁Jair Monteiroout: Desmond Amoh Nketia
80'
83'
🔁Ricardinhoout: Moises Tablante
84'
Luis Rocha
90+5'
Micael correia

Match stats — Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa

40%Possession60%
8Shots17
2On target2
5Corners12

Line-ups

Feirense 4-3-3
  • 26Diego AltubeG
  • 20João OliveiraD
  • 14Pedro PintoD
  • 15Diego MorenoD
  • 40João QueirósD
  • 27Tiago CastroM
  • 6Diogo MendesM
  • 24M. DiabyM
  • 23Pedro HenriqueF
  • 9J. MonteiroF
  • 25Henrique PereiraF
Substitutes
  • 30Peter Adejimi
  • 19Alexandre GuedesF
  • 2Luiz GustavoD
  • 3KaiquyD
  • 4Antonio LealD
  • 16André LopesD
  • 1Francisco MeixedoG
  • 11D. NketiaF
  • 8Gui SantosM
Coach: Rui Ferreira
Lusitânia Lourosa 4-3-3
  • 29Brian AraújoG
  • 24RicardinhoD
  • 4D. CollardD
  • 22Bruno FariaD
  • 52F. MachadoD
  • 27FabinhoM
  • 20Diogo PauloM
  • 12ArsénioF
  • 7Micael correiaF
  • 17João SantosF
  • 21PaulitéF
Substitutes
  • 80ManelF
  • 6António MontezD
  • 23Marco SousaG
  • 10André RicardoF
  • 16Luís RochaD
  • 9João SilvaF
  • 5SilvérioD
  • 11M. TablanteF
  • 88Miguel TeixeiraM

Form going into Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa

Feirense

Segunda Liga

  • L0-1away to Penafiel2 November 2026
  • D0-0Benfica B24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Farense11 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Chaves13 September 2026

Lusitânia Lourosa

Segunda Liga

  • D1-1Farense1 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Felgueiras 193225 October 2026
  • D1-1Chaves11 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sporting CP B14 September 2026

What these results say

  • Feirense did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Feirense failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Feirense conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Lusitânia Lourosa went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Lusitânia Lourosa scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Lusitânia Lourosa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Feirense10127311-85
4Lusitânia Lourosa10541159+619

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Feirense vs Lusitânia Lourosa

  • 22 February 2026Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 FeirenseSegunda Liga
  • 28 September 2025Feirense 1–2 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
  • 2 June 2024Feirense 3–0 Lusitânia LourosaSegunda Liga
  • 26 May 2024Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0 FeirenseSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Feirense and Lusitânia Lourosa

Feirense

GoalsAssists

  • J. Monteiro10

Lusitânia Lourosa

GoalsAssists

  • Mika Borges10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Feirense beat Lusitânia Lourosa 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lusitânia Lourosa at 39% and given a win for Feirense 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Pedro Henrique de Oliveira da Silva 5' for Feirense.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Feirense a 81.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 76.0% after a win, 83.0% after a draw, 85.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 76.0%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

For Lusitânia Lourosa the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 32.1% going in: 37.6% after a win, 29.6% after a draw, 25.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.7%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.