24 October 2026, 10:00 UTC

Academica vs Leixoes Segunda Liga prediction & result

Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra, Coimbra
Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Academica 4-0 Leixoes.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Academica, 25% draw, 30% Leixoes — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Academica at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Academica99%Draw1%Leixoes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

4'
A. Balde
⚽Leandro Silva (pen)
14'
⚽Jean Sinisterraassist: Kevin Zohi
36'
•Amadou Coundoul
45+1'
46'
🔁José Manuel Bica Reisout: João Assunção
46'
🔁Salvador Agraout: Semeu Commey
⚽Amadou Coundoul
49'
Kaka
59'
61'
João Assunção
🔁Kevin Zohiout: Rui Gomes
65'
🔁Leandro Silvaout: Marcos Paulo
66'
🔁Kakaout: Hélder Lopes
77'
🔁Amadou Coundoulout: Ilies Faure
77'
77'
🔁Rafael Barbosaout: Arthur Baggio
79'
🔁Bryan Rochezout: Luccas Paraizo
80'
Arthur Baggio
⚽Jean Sinisterra
81'
🔁Jean Sinisterraout: Hugo Nunes
85'
Afonso Rodrigues
86'

Match stats — Academica vs Leixoes

56%Possession44%
14Shots7
7On target2
2Corners3

Line-ups

Academica 4-3-3
  • 12Victor BragaG
  • 2Xabier SanchezM
  • 3Ricardo TeixeiraD
  • 4Guilherme Willian da SilvaD
  • 15KakaD
  • 25L. PierreM
  • 5Leandro SilvaD
  • 20J. SinisterraM
  • 8K. ZohiF
  • 92A. CoundoulM
  • 19Afonso RodriguesF
Substitutes
  • 1Nuno MacedoG
  • 13KauanD
  • 54NiD
  • 22Hélder LopesD
  • 60João OliveiraM
  • 17Marcos PauloM
  • 46H. NunesM
  • 23Rui GomesF
  • 9Martim TavaresF
Coach: António Barbosa
Leixoes 4-4-2
  • 51I. StefanovićG
  • 77PaulinhoD
  • 63H. FariaD
  • 4Matheus CostaD
  • 30Serif NhagaD
  • 7Salvador AgraF
  • 22Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues AraújoM
  • 6A. BaldeF
  • 10Rafael BarbosaM
  • 9BicaF
  • 35B. RochezF
Substitutes
  • 15SimãozinhoD
  • 17Arthur BaggioF
  • 80João AssunçãoM
  • 88Rúben PinaF
  • 71KaiqueF
  • 33Luccas FeitosaF
  • 26Caio SeccoG
  • 44S. CommeyD
  • 14Alysson SilvaD
Coach: Fangueiro

Form going into Academica vs Leixoes

Academica

Segunda Liga

  • W2-0away to União de Leiria11 October 2026
  • L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026

Leixoes

Segunda Liga

  • L1-2FC Porto B10 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Torreense11 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Academica105141613+316
12Leixoes103251317-411

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Academica vs Leixoes

  • 30 January 2022Academica 1–0 LeixoesSegunda Liga
  • 22 August 2021Leixoes 2–1 AcademicaSegunda Liga
  • 22 May 2021Leixoes 1–2 AcademicaSegunda Liga
  • 26 January 2021Academica 1–1 LeixoesSegunda Liga
  • 26 January 2020Leixoes 1–1 AcademicaSegunda Liga
  • 11 August 2019Academica 3–2 LeixoesSegunda Liga

Leading scorers: Academica and Leixoes

Academica

GoalsAssists

  • K. Zohi10
  • Leandro Silva10

Leixoes

No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Academica beat Leixoes 4–0. The model had made a win for Academica its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Leandro Silva (penalty) 14' for Academica, Jean Sinisterra 36' for Academica, Amadou Coundoul 49' for Academica, Jean Sinisterra 81' for Academica. Sent off: A. Balde (Leixoes) 4'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Academica a 13.6% chance to finish in the top three: 16.6% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 9.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.6%, 3 points higher than before the match.

For Leixoes the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 11.2% going in: 14.7% after a win, 12.0% after a draw, 8.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.1%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Academica v Leixoes has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 38% / 25% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 25% / 30%: the biggest move is Academica's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Academica win45%▲ +7
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Leixoes win30%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.