1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1. FC Nürnberg 4-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% 1. FC Nürnberg, 23% draw, 26% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 1.96, 4.35 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
1. FC Nürnberg at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1J. ReichertG
- 32T. JanischD
- 4A. KalogeropoulosD
- 36K. MandicD
- 41E. PorstnerD
- 6A. MarkhievM
- 8J. FernandezM
- 10J. JustvanM
- 22F. BeckerM
- 23M. A. ZomaM
- 19P. ScobelF
- 13R. LisewskiG
- 21G. MasourasD
- 14A. CeresoliD
- 44K. El HaijaM
- 18R. LubachM
- 35M. Kornwachs BarjuanD
- 16M. SoldicM
- 9S. HaugenF
- 7R. GhriebF
- 1J. KerskenG
- 7H. KoudossouD
- 5M. BauerD
- 19M. GrosserD
- 29T. HandwerkerD
- 14M. MomuluhM
- 8S. SchreckM
- 21S. RussoM
- 10J. RocheltM
- 6M. MehlemF
- 11J. GrodowskiF
- 18L. OppermannG
- 3J. FelixD
- 17A. SickerD
- 38M. WorlM
- 44E. YasarM
- 42T. WegenerM
- 30I. YoungF
- 28R. UldrikisF
- 27B. BoakyeF
Form going into 1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Nürnberg
All competitions we cover
- W4-2away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth15 August 2026
- W3-0Dynamo Dresden9 August 2026
Arminia Bielefeld
All competitions we cover
- W3-0Energie Cottbus16 August 2026
- L1-2away to Karlsruher SC8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 24 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Arminia Bielefeld
- 18 April 2026Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg2. Bundesliga
- 23 November 20251. FC Nürnberg 2–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 19 July 2025Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 1. FC NürnbergFriendlies Clubs
- 17 March 2023Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
- 9 September 2022FC Nurnberg 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 6 June 2020Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 FC Nurnberg2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: 1. FC Nürnberg and Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC Nürnberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Zoma70
- P. Scobel61
Arminia Bielefeld
GoalsAssists
- J. Grodowski72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
1. FC Nürnberg beat Arminia Bielefeld 4–1. The model had made a win for 1. FC Nürnberg its most likely outcome, at 51%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: M. A. Zoma 11' for 1. FC Nürnberg, T. Janisch 22' for 1. FC Nürnberg, A. Markhiev 38' for 1. FC Nürnberg, A. Markhiev 67' for 1. FC Nürnberg, M. Worl 76' for Arminia Bielefeld. On expected goals it finished 0.94–1.19.