Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Liverpool, 24% draw, 21% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Liverpool at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1AlissonG
- 30J. FrimpongD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 18C. GakpoM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 23V. MunozM
- 9A. IsakF
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 33R. AraujoD
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 3W. EndoM
- 53J. McConnellM
- 42T. NyoniM
- 67L. KoumasF
- 73R. NgumohaF
- 26M. SelsG
- 23CunhaD
- 31N. MilenkovicD
- 5MurilloD
- 34O. AinaM
- 21X. SchlagerM
- 24J. McAteeM
- 3N. WilliamsM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteF
- 14D. NdoyeF
- 11Igor JesusF
- 12John VictorG
- 25L. NetzD
- 2O. DiomandeD
- 44Z. AbbottD
- 22R. YatesM
- 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
- 8N. DominguezM
- 9C. WoodF
- 19L. DelapF
Form going into Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Newcastle23 August 2026
Nottingham Forest
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Leeds22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Liverpool | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 18 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
- 22 February 2026Nottingham Forest 0–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- 22 November 2025Liverpool 0–3 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 14 January 2025Nottingham Forest 1–1 LiverpoolPremier League
- 14 September 2024Liverpool 0–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 2 March 2024Nottingham Forest 0–1 LiverpoolPremier League
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak70
Nottingham Forest
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Liverpool and Nottingham Forest drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Liverpool at 55% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: D. Ndoye 24' for Nottingham Forest, A. Isak 60' for Liverpool, M. Gibbs-White (penalty) 70' for Nottingham Forest, V. Munoz 82' for Liverpool. On expected goals it finished 1.61–2.30.