29 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Premier League prediction & result

Anfield, Liverpool
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Liverpool, 24% draw, 21% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Liverpool at 55% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Liverpool5%Draw92%Nottingham Forest3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

24'
⚽D. Ndoyeassist: M. Gibbs-White
•Florian Wirtz
32'
44'
Igor Jesus
50'
Ola Aina
Víctor Muñoz
54'
Florian Wirtz
58'
⚽A. Isakassist: C. Gakpo
60'
66'
🔁D. Ndoyeout: L. Delap
Alisson
69'
70'
⚽M. Gibbs-White (pen)
🔁M. Kerkezout: K. Tsimikas
71'
🔁J. Frimpongout: R. Gravenberch
71'
🔁C. Gakpoout: R. Ngumoha
71'
🔁J. Jacquetout: R. Araujo
77'
🔁A. Mac Allisterout: T. Nyoni
77'
Ronald Araújo
79'
⚽V. Munozassist: F. Wirtz
82'
86'
🔁O. Ainaout: L. Netz
90+2'
🔁J. McAteeout: C. Hudson-Odoi
90+2'
🔁Igor Jesusout: N. Dominguez

Match stats — Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

70%Possession30%
13Shots12
4On target3
3Corners5
1.61xG2.3

Goals against chances

Liverpool2 from 1.61 xGabout what the chances were worth
Nottingham Forest2 from 2.30 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Liverpool 4-2-3-1
  • 1AlissonG
  • 30J. FrimpongD
  • 5J. JacquetD
  • 4V. van DijkD
  • 6M. KerkezD
  • 8D. SzoboszlaiM
  • 10A. Mac AllisterM
  • 18C. GakpoM
  • 7F. WirtzM
  • 23V. MunozM
  • 9A. IsakF
Substitutes
  • 25G. MamardashviliG
  • 21K. TsimikasD
  • 33R. AraujoD
  • 38R. GravenberchM
  • 3W. EndoM
  • 53J. McConnellM
  • 42T. NyoniM
  • 67L. KoumasF
  • 73R. NgumohaF
Coach: Andoni Iraola
Nottingham Forest 3-4-2-1
  • 26M. SelsG
  • 23CunhaD
  • 31N. MilenkovicD
  • 5MurilloD
  • 34O. AinaM
  • 21X. SchlagerM
  • 24J. McAteeM
  • 3N. WilliamsM
  • 10M. Gibbs-WhiteF
  • 14D. NdoyeF
  • 11Igor JesusF
Substitutes
  • 12John VictorG
  • 25L. NetzD
  • 2O. DiomandeD
  • 44Z. AbbottD
  • 22R. YatesM
  • 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
  • 8N. DominguezM
  • 9C. WoodF
  • 19L. DelapF
Coach: Oliver Glasner

Form going into Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

Liverpool

  • D2-2away to Newcastle23 August 2026

Nottingham Forest

  • L0-1Leeds22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Liverpool413064+26
11Nottingham Forest41214405

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

  • 29 August 2026Liverpool 2–2 Nottingham ForestPremier League
  • 22 February 2026Nottingham Forest 0–1 LiverpoolPremier League
  • 22 November 2025Liverpool 0–3 Nottingham ForestPremier League
  • 14 January 2025Nottingham Forest 1–1 LiverpoolPremier League
  • 14 September 2024Liverpool 0–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
  • 2 March 2024Nottingham Forest 0–1 LiverpoolPremier League

Leading scorers: Liverpool and Nottingham Forest

Liverpool

  • A. Isak3 goals

Nottingham Forest

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.