22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon UEFA Europa League prediction & result

SNP Arena, Sinsheim
Referee: Halil Umut Meler
Full time3 – 0

Final score: 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 Lyon.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% 1899 Hoffenheim, 27% draw, 37% Lyon — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lyon at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1899 Hoffenheim99%Draw1%Lyon0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mats Rots
9'
31'
🔁Steeve Kangoout: Noham Kamara
⚽Andrej Kramarić
45+4'
45'
🔁Felix Bacherout: Moussa Niakhaté
45'
🔁Tanner Tessmannout: Tyler Morton
⚽Adam Daghimassist: Andrej Kramarić
49'
60'
🔁Mads Bidstrupout: Corentin Tolisso
🔁Adam Daghimout: Wouter Burger
61'
🔁Vladimír Coufalout: Valentin Gendrey
61'
🔁Bambasé Contéout: Adam Hložek
65'
Wouter Burger
72'
75'
🔁Kail Boudacheout: Ernest Nuamah
🔁Mats Rotsout: Koki Machida
77'
🔁Tim Lemperleout: Fisnik Asllani
78'
Ozan Kabak
81'
Christian Ilzer
81'
⚽Adam Hložekassist: Andrej Kramarić
83'
90+3'
Moussa Niakhaté

Match stats — 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon

43%Possession57%
21Shots8
8On target2
11Corners9
2.13xG0.89

Goals against chances

1899 Hoffenheim3 from 2.13 xGmore than the chances were worth
Lyon0 from 0.89 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1899 Hoffenheim 4-4-2
  • 1O. BaumannG
  • 34V. CoufalD
  • 2R. HranáčD
  • 5O. KabakD
  • 39M. RotsD
  • 20B. ContéM
  • 7L. AvdullahuM
  • 22A. PrassM
  • 14A. DaghimM
  • 19T. LemperleF
  • 27A. KramarićF
Substitutes
  • 11F. AsllaniF
  • 29Natnael AbrahaD
  • 13BernardoD
  • 18W. BurgerM
  • 15V. GendreyD
  • 10A. HložekF
  • 47V. LässigD
  • 32Cajetan Benjamin LenzM
  • 28K. MachidaD
Coach: C. Ilzer
Lyon 4-3-3
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 37Steeve KangoD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 22Clinton MataD
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 6T. TessmannM
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 45R. HimbertF
  • 11Keito NakamuraF
Substitutes
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 7E. NuamahF
  • 19M. NiakhatéD
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 18K. MerahM
  • 85N. KamaraD
  • 24J. DuranvilleF
  • 40R. DescampsG
Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon

1899 Hoffenheim

UEFA Europa League

  • L2-3Beşiktaş15 October 2026
  • L0-2away to OFI17 September 2026

Lyon

UEFA Europa League

  • W3-2Crystal Palace15 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Anderlecht16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
231899 Hoffenheim41126604
13Lyon421167-17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon

  • 7 November 20241899 Hoffenheim 2–2 LyonUEFA Europa League
  • 7 November 2018Lyon 2–2 1899 HoffenheimUEFA Champions League
  • 23 October 20181899 Hoffenheim 3–3 LyonUEFA Champions League

The result against the call

1899 Hoffenheim beat Lyon 3–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Lyon at 37% and given a win for 1899 Hoffenheim 36%. The goals: Andrej Kramarić 45+4' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Adam Daghim 49' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Adam Hložek 83' for 1899 Hoffenheim. On expected goals it finished 2.13–0.89.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.