Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Jagiellonia 0-3 Anderlecht.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Jagiellonia, 28% draw, 38% Anderlecht — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Anderlecht at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 50S. AbramowiczG
- 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
- 5Bernardo VitalD
- 4Y. KobayashiD
- 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
- 19A. KlyngeM
- 85Eryk KozlowskiM
- 14H. FinndellM
- 72K. JóźwiakF
- 99N. PrelecF
- 7K. SzmytF
- 32A. ĆirkovićF
- 11Jesús ImazM
- 44A. KonstantopoulosD
- 21Sergio LozanoM
- 1M. PerchelG
- 6T. RomanczukM
- 30O. SowM
- 3D. StojinovićD
- 17Y. SyllaF
- 26C. CoosemansG
- 50K. BarryD
- 4G. BianconeD
- 27L. PétrotD
- 5O. ReabciukD
- 18L. AmbrosM
- 29M. StroeykensM
- 19T. AasgaardM
- 10M. WinklerF
- 9M. CvetkoviÄF
- 83T. DegreefF
- 11O. AntmanF
- 14D. SikanF
- 49Jayden Onia SekeF
- 79A. MaamarD
- 24E. LlansanaM
- 55M. KanaM
- 32J. HeekerenG
- 91A. BertacciniF
- 21T. BentayebF
Form going into Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht
Jagiellonia
UEFA Europa League
- W3-1Ararat-Armenia15 October 2026
- L1-2away to Olympiakos Piraeus16 September 2026
Anderlecht
UEFA Europa League
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb15 October 2026
- L1-2Lyon16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jagiellonia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Anderlecht | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Anderlecht won 3–0 at Jagiellonia. The model had made a win for Anderlecht its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Mihajlo Cvetkovic 21' for Anderlecht, Marten Winkler 72' for Anderlecht, Jayden Onia-Seke 80' for Anderlecht. On expected goals it finished 0.29–1.06.
How the call on Jagiellonia v Anderlecht has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 38% / 27% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is Jagiellonia's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Jagiellonia win34%▼ −4
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Anderlecht win38%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.