22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Referee: Manfredas Lukjancukas
Full time2 – 4

Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 2-4 NEC Nijmegen.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Dinamo Zagreb, 24% draw, 26% NEC Nijmegen — fair odds of 2.00, 4.17 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Zagreb at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Zagreb0%Draw1%NEC Nijmegen99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Dion Drena Beljo
23'
25'
⚽Clement Bischoffassist: Noe Lebreton
⚽Dion Drena Beljoassist: Matteo Perez Vinlöf
33'
•Luka Ivanušec
36'
⚽Dion Drena Beljo
37'
44'
Noe Lebreton
45'
⚽Bryan Linssenassist: Clement Bischoff
54'
⚽Bryan Linssenassist: Darko Nejašmić
🔁Iker Almena Horcajoout: Dani Rodríguez
59'
🔁Arber Hoxhaout: Mislav Oršić
67'
🔁Niko Galesicout: Moris Valincic
67'
76'
🔁Dennis Geigerout: Jamiro Monteiro
🔁Matteo Perez Vinlöfout: Bruno Goda
76'
🔁Luka Ivanušecout: Lukas Kacavenda
76'
80'
⚽Tjaronn Chery
81'
🔁Deveron Fonvilleout: Kevin Kers
81'
🔁Perr Schuursout: Gabriel·Bras
90'
🔁Tjaronn Cheryout: Willum Thor Willumsson
90'
🔁Bryan Linssenout: Kaj Sierhuis
90+2'
Clement Bischoff

Match stats — Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen

58%Possession42%
16Shots15
10On target5
5Corners2
2.56xG1.25

Goals against chances

Dinamo Zagreb2 from 2.56 xGless than the chances were worth
NEC Nijmegen4 from 1.25 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb 4-1-4-1
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 15N. GalešićD
  • 36Sergi DomínguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
  • 27J. MišićM
  • 23Iker AlmenaM
  • 10L. StojkovićM
  • 17L. IvanušecM
  • 11A. HoxhaM
  • 9D. BeljoF
Substitutes
  • 6S. RadeljićD
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 7Dani RodríguezF
  • 25M. ValinčićD
  • 80L. KačavendaM
  • 14S. PrevljakF
  • 99M. OršićF
  • 1D. ZagoracG
  • 21M. LisicaF
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
NEC Nijmegen 3-4-2-1
  • 1G. CrettazG
  • 4P. SchuursD
  • 22A. KaplanD
  • 24Deveron FonvilleD
  • 21T. StormM
  • 6D. NejašmićM
  • 18D. GeigerM
  • 99Clement BischoffM
  • 9T. CheryM
  • 20N. LebretonM
  • 30B. LinssenF
Substitutes
  • 11W. WillumssonM
  • 14K. SierhuisF
  • 12N. PolsterG
  • 34Kevin KersF
  • 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
  • 38Joep GenesteG
  • 73Gabriel BrásD
  • 35Jamiro MonteiroM
Coach: Dick Schreuder

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen

Dinamo Zagreb

UEFA Europa League

  • W1-0Anderlecht15 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva16 September 2026

NEC Nijmegen

UEFA Europa League

  • D1-1Levski Sofia15 October 2026
  • L0-5away to Juventus17 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Dinamo Zagreb421154+17
12NEC Nijmegen421189-17

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and NEC Nijmegen

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo40

NEC Nijmegen

GoalsAssists

  • T. Chery31
  • B. Linssen31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

NEC Nijmegen won 4–2 at Dinamo Zagreb. The model had leaned towards a win for Dinamo Zagreb at 50% and given a win for NEC Nijmegen 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Clement Bischoff 25' for NEC Nijmegen, Dion Drena Beljo 33' for Dinamo Zagreb, Dion Drena Beljo 37' for Dinamo Zagreb, Bryan Linssen 45' for NEC Nijmegen, Bryan Linssen 54' for NEC Nijmegen, Tjaronn Chery 80' for NEC Nijmegen. On expected goals it finished 2.56–1.25.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.