Juventus vs Rennes UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Juventus 2-2 Rennes.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Juventus, 22% draw, 19% Rennes — fair odds of 1.69, 4.55 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Juventus at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Juventus vs Rennes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25G. VicarioG
- 4F. GattiD
- 3BremerD
- 6L. KellyD
- 2Z. ÇelikM
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 20A. CambiasoM
- 22W. McKennieM
- 9R. Kolo MuaniF
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 33NetoG
- 17Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićF
- 23C. PinsoglioG
- 13J. BogaF
- 29P. SarrM
- 32J. CabalD
- 31N. GonzálezF
- 15P. KaluluD
- 26J. LucumíD
- 30B. SambaG
- 14B. ReynoldsD
- 48A. Ait BoudlalD
- 4C. CresswellD
- 24A. RouaultD
- 18M. NagidaD
- 28A. ThomassonM
- 21V. RongierM
- 45M. CamaraM
- 22B. DiaF
- 11Mousa TamariF
- 65H. Do MarcolinoF
- 95P. FrankowskiM
- 16N. LemaîtreG
- 12Eliezer MayendaF
- 26Q. MerlinD
- 70A. NordinF
- 5Gonçalo OliveiraD
- 90I. SoumaréF
- 17S. SzymańskiM
Form going into Juventus vs Rennes
Juventus
UEFA Europa League
- W2-1away to Celta Vigo15 October 2026
- W5-0NEC Nijmegen17 September 2026
Rennes
UEFA Europa League
- W2-1OFI15 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sturm Graz16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Juventus | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 17 | Rennes | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Juventus and Rennes
Juventus
GoalsAssists
- R. Kolo Muani32
- N. Woltemade32
Rennes
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Juventus and Rennes drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Juventus at 59% and given a draw 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Zeki Çelik 5' for Juventus, Mousa Al-Tamari 15' for Rennes, Boulaye Dia (penalty) 43' for Rennes, Nick Woltemade (penalty) 67' for Juventus. On expected goals it finished 2.26–1.77.
How the call on Juventus v Rennes has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 66% / 20% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 59% / 22% / 19%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, down 7 points.
- Juventus win59%▼ −7
- Draw22%▲ +2
- Rennes win19%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.