Lech Poznan vs Sunderland UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Lech Poznan 1-1 Sunderland.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Lech Poznan, 24% draw, 19% Sunderland — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Lech Poznan at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 59T. YegbeD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 43A. KozubalM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 11D. HåkansM
- 9M. IshakF
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 55Piotr BartczakD
- 14L. BengtssonM
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 24F. JagiełłoM
- 90H. JanyszkaD
- 31Wiktor ObremskiG
- 77L. PalmaM
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 22R. RoefsG
- 20N. MukieleD
- 4K. DansoD
- 13L. O'NienD
- 6D. MethalieD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 19H. DiarraM
- 39M. FofanaM
- 57Timur TuterovF
- 32T. HumeD
- 40J. WhittakerM
- 47T. OgunsuyiF
- 27N. SadikiM
- 11C. RiggM
- 77T. ProctorM
- 21S. MooreG
- 17ReinildoD
- 28E. Le FéeM
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
Lech Poznan
UEFA Europa League
- L0-4Bayer Leverkusen15 October 2026
- L0-4away to Crystal Palace17 September 2026
Sunderland
UEFA Europa League
- W2-1away to Torreense15 October 2026
- W1-0AZ Alkmaar16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Lech Poznan and Sunderland drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Lech Poznan at 57% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Timur Tutierov 2' for Sunderland, Leo Bengtsson 70' for Lech Poznan. On expected goals it finished 2.51–2.78.
How the call on Lech Poznan v Sunderland has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Lech Poznan's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Lech Poznan win57%▲ +7
- Draw24%▼ −2
- Sunderland win19%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Lech Poznan's most recent league matches and Sunderland's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.