Celtic vs Celta Vigo UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Celtic 1-2 Celta Vigo.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Celtic, 28% draw, 30% Celta Vigo — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Celtic at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celtic vs Celta Vigo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26S. JohnstoneG
- 51Colby DonovanD
- 47D. MurrayD
- 5L. ScalesD
- 63K. TierneyD
- 42C. McGregorM
- 22M. BaurM
- 23H. HassanM
- 8B. NygrenM
- 19C. OsmandM
- 11C. DuránF
- 61J. HaneyM
- 49J. ForrestM
- 9K. HøghF
- 62Liam KennedyM
- 3J. LotombaD
- 33S. McArdleM
- 14L. McCowanM
- 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
- 56A. RalstonD
- 13I. RaduG
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 21S. CáceresD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 30H. BurcioM
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 10Iago AspasF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 35G. MillerD
- 6I. MoribaM
- 19W. SwedbergF
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 22Javi GalánD
- 4A. FayeD
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 24C. DriouechF
- 1A. BayındırG
Form going into Celtic vs Celta Vigo
Celtic
UEFA Europa League
- L1-4away to Benfica15 October 2026
- L1-3Ferencvarosi TC17 September 2026
Celta Vigo
UEFA Europa League
- L1-2Juventus15 October 2026
- L0-1away to Omonia Nicosia16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Celtic | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 27 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Celtic and Celta Vigo
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán30
Celta Vigo
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celta Vigo won 2–1 at Celtic. The model had leaned towards a win for Celtic at 42% and given a win for Celta Vigo 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Mika Baur 47' for Celtic, Javier Rodríguez Galiano 68' for Celta Vigo, Javier Rodríguez Galiano 71' for Celta Vigo. On expected goals it finished 0.59–1.27.
How the call on Celtic v Celta Vigo has moved
First published on 8 Oct at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Celtic's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Celtic win42%▲ +4
- Draw28%=
- Celta Vigo win30%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.