25 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Defensores del Chaco
Referee: Derlis Lopez
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1-3 Cerro Porteno.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Club Sp. San Lorenzo, 27% draw, 52% Cerro Porteno — fair odds of 4.76, 3.70 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Cerro Porteno at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Leandro Esteche (OG)
36'
⚽Pablo Vegettiassist: Derlis Osmar Rodríguez Maciel
Luis Cáceres
41'
45+2'
•Iván Ramírez
🔁R. Amarillaout: Kevin Ferreira Gonzalez
45'
🔁Ángel Benítezout: Lucas Andres Cohener Gonzalez
45'
🔁Santiago Salcedoout: Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón
45'
⚽J. Barrios
47'
51'
Cesar Bobadilla
51'
Lucas Merolla
65'
🔁Derlis Osmar Rodríguez Macielout: Ignacio Aliseda
65'
🔁Cesar Bobadillaout: Pablo Gamarra
Hugo González
66'
77'
🔁Mateo Klimowiczout: A. Cañete
🔁Carlos Daniel Meza Montielout: I Fretes
78'
🔁Hugo Gonzálezout: Elias Ortiz
78'
83'
Jorge Morel
Alexis Doldán
84'
86'
🔁Pablo Vegettiout: Sergio Araujo
86'
🔁Carlos Rubén Chena Báezout: Gastón Giménez
90+1'
⚽Ignacio Alisedaassist: Sergio Araujo
Marcelo Augusto Ferreira Bordón
90+5'

Match stats — Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno

53%Possession47%
11Shots20
5On target6
5Corners3
1.34xG3.45

Goals against chances

Club Sp. San Lorenzo1 from 1.34 xGabout what the chances were worth
Cerro Porteno3 from 3.45 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Club Sp. San Lorenzo 4-4-2
  • 31L. FrancoG
  • 2L. EstecheD
  • 19Luis Fernando Cáceres MacielD
  • 4A. DoldánD
  • 20D. Meza MontielD
  • 8R. AmarillaM
  • 16Á. BenítezM
  • 21H. GonzalezM
  • 28P. GerzelM
  • 7S. SalcedoF
  • 9J. BarriosF
Substitutes
  • 39Lucas Andres Cohener GonzalezM
  • 33Gustavo Luis Centurion VillalbaG
  • 25K. FernándezM
  • 23M. FerreiraF
  • 22K. FerreiraM
  • 13Isaias FretesF
  • 27Elias OrtizM
  • 5T. ParedesD
  • 38Iovan Darko RoganovichM
Coach: S. Orteman
Cerro Porteno 4-1-4-1
  • 12A. MartínezG
  • 16I. RamírezD
  • 23G. VelázquezD
  • 6L. MerollaD
  • 15B. RiverosD
  • 5J. MorelM
  • 7D. RodríguezM
  • 32C. BobadillaM
  • 34C. ChenaM
  • 40M. KlimowiczM
  • 19P. VegettiF
Substitutes
  • 31I. AlisedaM
  • 20E. AlmendraM
  • 21S. AraújoF
  • 4A. CañeteD
  • 35M. ChaparroD
  • 38Amín CristaldoM
  • 28C. FrancoF
  • 18A. GamarraM
  • 30G. GiménezM
Coach: G. Costas

Form going into Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L2-3away to Sportivo Luqueno18 October 2026

Cerro Porteno

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D2-2Sportivo Ameliano18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Club Sp. San Lorenzo1925121432-1811
7Cerro Porteno198472520+528

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno

  • 14 October 2026Cerro Porteno 2–2 Club Sp. San LorenzoCopa Paraguay
  • 16 August 2026Cerro Porteno 1–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 28 March 2026Cerro Porteno 2–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 27 January 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 2–4 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 13 December 2020Cerro Porteno 1–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 2 October 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Cerro Porteno

Club Sp. San Lorenzo

GoalsAssists

  • M. Ferreira51

Cerro Porteno

GoalsAssists

  • P. Vegetti80
  • J. Morel50
  • D. Rodríguez45

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cerro Porteno won 3–1 at Club Sp. San Lorenzo. The model had made a win for Cerro Porteno its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Leandro Esteche (own goal) 5' for Cerro Porteno, Pablo Vegetti 36' for Cerro Porteno, J. Barrios 47' for Club Sp. San Lorenzo, Ignacio Aliseda 90+1' for Cerro Porteno. On expected goals it finished 1.34–3.45.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cerro Porteno a 5.9% chance to finish in the top four: 8.1% after a win, 2.4% after a draw, 2.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.1%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Club Sp. San Lorenzo v Cerro Porteno has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 20% / 29% / 51% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 21% / 27% / 52%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Club Sp. San Lorenzo win21%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Cerro Porteno win52%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.