25 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result

Estadio Jose Tomas Silva, Asuncion
Referee: Carlos P. Benitez
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Sportivo Ameliano 2-3 Olimpia.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Sportivo Ameliano, 27% draw, 45% Olimpia — fair odds of 3.57, 3.70 and 2.22.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Olimpia at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sportivo Ameliano0%Draw3%Olimpia97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

31'
⚽Gabriel Ávalosassist: Mateo Gamarra
⚽Luca Andrea Falabellaassist: Julio González
33'
50'
Richard Ortiz
Valentin Larralde
52'
53'
Fernando Cardozo
🔁Cristhian·Ocamposout: R. Torales
56'
56'
🔁Eduardo Delmasout: Richard Sánchez
56'
🔁Sebastián Ferreiraout: Bernardo Romeo Benitez Farina
59'
⚽Richard Sánchezassist: Gabriel Ávalos
🔁Valentin Larraldeout: Estivel Moreira
62'
🔁Edgar Paezout: Carlos Fabricio Favero Villasanti
62'
63'
⚽Richard Sánchezassist: Gabriel Ávalos
65'
🔁Alex Fernando Franco Zayasout: Iván Leguizamón
⚽Fredy Vera (pen)
72'
🔁Raul Ignacio Cabralout: Luis María Ayala Bentos
73'
🔁Walter Rodriguezout: Gabriel Marcelo Camargo
73'
79'
🔁Gabriel Ávalosout: Tiago Caballero
80'
🔁Fernando Cardozoout: Víctor Sebastián Quintana Herrera
Julio González
88'
90+4'
Mateo Gamarra
Gabriel Marcelo Camargo
90+5'
Fabián Franco
90+5'

Match stats — Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia

35%Possession65%
10Shots19
3On target6
4Corners4
1.6xG2.25

Goals against chances

Sportivo Ameliano2 from 1.60 xGabout what the chances were worth
Olimpia3 from 2.25 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sportivo Ameliano 4-2-3-1
  • 35Á. SánchezG
  • 13R. PeraltaD
  • 26J. GonzálezD
  • 22L. FalabellaD
  • 21F. FrancoD
  • 20V. LarraldeM
  • 15W. RodríguezM
  • 7F. VeraM
  • 10R. CabralM
  • 14E. ToralesM
  • 9C. OcamposF
Substitutes
  • 5H. BenítezD
  • 24L. BentosM
  • 6J. BenítezM
  • 28Alcides Ariel Ávalos SamudioF
  • 3F. BáezD
  • 32G. CamargoM
  • 1J. BalbuenaG
  • 16C. FaveroF
  • 8E. MoreiraM
Coach: Roberto Nanni
Olimpia 4-4-2
  • 1G. OlveiraG
  • 27R. CáceresD
  • 14G. VargasD
  • 15M. GamarraD
  • 30A. RodríguezD
  • 7F. CardozoM
  • 8A. FrancoM
  • 6R. OrtizM
  • 20E. DelmásM
  • 11S. FerreiraF
  • 9G. ÁvalosF
Substitutes
  • 35F. AlfonsoF
  • 2B. BentaberryD
  • 37R. BenitezM
  • 24T. CaballeroF
  • 16J. DominguezM
  • 29I. LeguizamónM
  • 12S. LentinellyG
  • 23E. MatusM
  • 4T. PayneD
Coach: P. Sánchez

Form going into Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia

Sportivo Ameliano

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • D2-2away to Cerro Porteno18 October 2026

Olimpia

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-02 de Mayo17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sportivo Ameliano194781928-919
1Olimpia1913333714+2342

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sportivo Ameliano vs Olimpia

  • 16 August 2026Olimpia 2–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 3 May 2026Olimpia 1–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 28 February 2026Sportivo Ameliano 0–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 4 October 2025Olimpia 2–1 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 27 July 2025Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 OlimpiaDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 13 April 2025Olimpia 0–0 Sportivo AmelianoDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Sportivo Ameliano and Olimpia

Sportivo Ameliano

GoalsAssists

  • C. Ocampos53
  • R. Torales51
  • E. Moreira50

Olimpia

GoalsAssists

  • G. Ávalos83
  • A. Alcaraz71
  • R. Benitez43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Olimpia won 3–2 at Sportivo Ameliano. The model had made a win for Olimpia its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Gabriel Ávalos 31' for Olimpia, Luca Andrea Falabella 33' for Sportivo Ameliano, Richard Sánchez 59' for Olimpia, Richard Sánchez 63' for Olimpia, Fredy Vera (penalty) 72' for Sportivo Ameliano. Sent off: Julio González (Sportivo Ameliano) 88'. On expected goals it finished 1.60–2.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Olimpia a 51.1% chance to win the league: 63.2% after a win, 43.4% after a draw, 34.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 63.2%, 12.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Sportivo Ameliano v Olimpia has moved

First published on 15 Oct at 30% / 28% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 28% / 27% / 45%: the biggest move is Olimpia's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Sportivo Ameliano win28%▼ −2
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Olimpia win45%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.