8 November 2026, 13:00 UTC

Aarhus vs AC Horsens Superliga prediction & result

New Vejlby Stadium, Aarhus
Referee: Michael Tykgaard
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Aarhus 2-0 AC Horsens.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Aarhus, 25% draw, 31% AC Horsens — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aarhus at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aarhus99%Draw1%AC Horsens0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
Adam Herdonsson
45'
🔁John Batigiout: Kingsley Bimpong
⚽Jacob Andersenassist: Callum McCowatt
53'
🔁James Bogereout: Sebastian Jorgensen
69'
🔁Frederik Emmeryout: Gift Links
69'
74'
🔁Adrian Justinussenout: Yamirou Ouorou
74'
🔁Karlo Lusavecout: Jimi Tauriainen
75'
Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan
🔁Callum McCowattout: Stefen Tchamche
78'
⚽Stefen Tchamcheassist: Jacob Andersen
87'
87'
🔁Ivan Milićevićout: Julius Körkkö
87'
🔁Adam Herdonssonout: Fallou Sene
88'
Jakob Bonde Jensen
🔁Magnus Knudsenout: Jens Jonsson
90+3'
🔁Jacob Andersenout: Rasmus Carstensen
90+3'

Match stats — Aarhus vs AC Horsens

59%Possession41%
16Shots12
6On target3
5Corners3
2.19xG0.68

Goals against chances

Aarhus2 from 2.19 xGabout what the chances were worth
AC Horsens0 from 0.68 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 14T. MølgaardD
  • 25C. RöslerD
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 26J. AndersenM
  • 7M. SolbakkenM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 39Frederik EmmeryM
  • 31T. BechM
  • 18C. McCowattM
  • 28J. BogereF
Substitutes
  • 29R. CarstensenD
  • 33Luka CalløD
  • 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
  • 16J. JønssonM
  • 11G. LinksM
  • 22O. HaugstrupM
  • 45Christian StorchD
  • 27S. TchamcheF
  • 8S. JørgensenM
Coach: J. Poulsen
AC Horsens 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. DelačG
  • 26V. PálssonD
  • 28A. SaineD
  • 6J. BondeD
  • 7I. MiličevićD
  • 17A. HerdonssonM
  • 20K. LusavecM
  • 22J. BatigiM
  • 14J. MadsenM
  • 15A. JustinussenM
  • 11K. EhibhatiomhanF
Substitutes
  • 25Fallou SeneF
  • 27Y. OuorouF
  • 31A. HoffG
  • 18J. KörkköF
  • 35M. KupijbidaD
  • 30S. DouaD
  • 5A. BruusD
  • 41Kingsley BimpongF
  • 19Jimi Weikko TauriainenM
Coach: Niki Zimling

Form going into Aarhus vs AC Horsens

Aarhus

Superliga

  • L0-2away to Brondby1 November 2026
  • W2-1Viborg25 October 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Copenhagen18 October 2026
  • W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026

AC Horsens

Superliga

  • L0-1away to Viborg1 November 2026
  • W5-1Sonderjyske25 October 2026
  • D0-0Randers FC16 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Silkeborg11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Aarhus scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Aarhus conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AC Horsens failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AC Horsens conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Aarhus143651921-215
7AC Horsens144462323016

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aarhus vs AC Horsens

  • 20 September 2026AC Horsens 2–2 AarhusSuperliga
  • 15 July 2026Aarhus 2–0 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 July 2025Aarhus 2–1 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 June 2024AC Horsens 0–3 AarhusFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 July 2023Aarhus 2–1 AC HorsensFriendlies Clubs
  • 3 March 2023Aarhus 2–0 AC HorsensSuperliga

Leading scorers: Aarhus and AC Horsens

Aarhus

GoalsAssists

  • J. Serra50

AC Horsens

GoalsAssists

  • K. Ehibhatiomhan40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aarhus beat AC Horsens 2–0. The model had made a win for Aarhus its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jacob Andersen 53' for Aarhus, Stefen Tchamche 87' for Aarhus. On expected goals it finished 2.19–0.68.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aarhus a 27.5% chance to finish in the top six: 38.4% after a win, 22.5% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 38.4%, 10.9 points higher than before the match.

For AC Horsens the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 52.4% going in: 71.1% after a win, 53.5% after a draw, 40.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.0%, 12.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Aarhus v AC Horsens has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 48% / 25% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 25% / 31%: the biggest move is Aarhus's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Aarhus win44%▼ −4
  2. Draw25%=
  3. AC Horsens win31%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.