8 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Varazdin
Referee: Mateo Erceg
Full time1 – 3

Final score: NK Varazdin 1-3 Dinamo Zagreb.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% NK Varazdin, 29% draw, 43% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Zagreb at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Varazdin0%Draw1%Dinamo Zagreb99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Luka Mamićassist: Ivan Canjuga
27'
30'
⚽Luka Stojkovicassist: Dion Drena Beljo
Roberto Punčec
35'
Ivan Canjuga
42'
Frane Maglica
48'
56'
🔁Dani Rodríguezout: Fran Topic
🔁Aleksa Latkovicout: Matej Vuk
63'
Iuri Tavares
65'
65'
Niko Galešić
68'
🔁Luka Ivanušecout: Lukas Kacavenda
68'
🔁Matteo Perez Vinlöfout: Bruno Goda
73'
•Dion Drena Beljo
Roberto Punčec
77'
78'
⚽Dion Drena Beljo (pen)
🔁Iuri Tavaresout: Emmanuel Uchegbu Chimeroucheya
79'
🔁Luka Mamićout: Valentin Akrap
85'
🔁Tomislav Duvnjakout: David Puclin
85'
87'
🔁Luka Stojkovicout: Miha Zajc
87'
🔁Arber Hoxhaout: Mislav Oršić
89'
⚽Miha Zajcassist: Lukas Kacavenda
Emmanuel Uchegbu Chimeroucheya
90+5'

Match stats — NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb

41%Possession59%
7Shots25
2On target6
3Corners10
0.86xG2.15

Goals against chances

NK Varazdin1 from 0.86 xGabout what the chances were worth
Dinamo Zagreb3 from 2.15 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Varazdin 3-4-3
  • 33J. SilićG
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 14R. PunčecD
  • 5Sven LesjakD
  • 23F. MaglicaM
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
  • 3E. DurakovićM
  • 10A. LatkovićF
  • 38Iuri TavaresF
  • 22L. MamićF
Substitutes
  • 17V. AkrapF
  • 44M. BaraćD
  • 12P. BočkajD
  • 11E. UchegbuF
  • 9S. JurićF
  • 19L. LukanićM
  • 1R. McCrorieG
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 30L. PosinkovicD
Coach: N. Šafarić
Dinamo Zagreb 4-1-4-1
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 25M. ValinčićD
  • 15N. GalešićD
  • 6S. RadeljićD
  • 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
  • 27J. MišićM
  • 7Dani RodríguezM
  • 17L. IvanušecM
  • 10L. StojkovićM
  • 11A. HoxhaM
  • 9D. BeljoF
Substitutes
  • 14S. PrevljakF
  • 99M. OršićF
  • 16N. MikicD
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 80L. KačavendaM
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 13Paul Bismarck TabinasD
  • 30F. TopićF
  • 8M. ZajcM
Coach: J. Leko

Form going into NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb

NK Varazdin

HNL

  • D1-1away to HNK Rijeka1 November 2026
  • L1-2NK Slaven Belupo24 October 2026
  • L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11 October 2026

Dinamo Zagreb

HNL

  • L0-1away to Rudes31 October 2026
  • W2-1HNK Rijeka27 October 2026
  • W5-1away to NK Slaven Belupo18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split10 October 2026

What these results say

  • NK Varazdin failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • NK Varazdin scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • NK Varazdin conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Dinamo Zagreb conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Dinamo Zagreb scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5NK Varazdin135441714+319
2Dinamo Zagreb128132815+1325

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb

  • 22 August 2026Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 26 April 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 22 February 2026NK Varazdin 0–4 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 22 November 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 30 August 2025NK Varazdin 2–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 25 May 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL

Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb

NK Varazdin

GoalsAssists

  • L. Mamić60
  • I. Canjuga33

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo136
  • L. Stojković32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Zagreb won 3–1 at NK Varazdin. The model had made a win for Dinamo Zagreb its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Luka Mamić 27' for NK Varazdin, Luka Stojkovic 30' for Dinamo Zagreb, Dion Drena Beljo (penalty) 78' for Dinamo Zagreb, Miha Zajc 89' for Dinamo Zagreb. Sent off: Roberto Punčec (NK Varazdin) 77', Emmanuel Uchegbu Chimeroucheya (NK Varazdin) 90+5'. On expected goals it finished 0.86–2.15.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave NK Varazdin a 56.9% chance to finish in the top four: 66.0% after a win, 55.3% after a draw, 52.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 52.4%, 4.5 points lower than before the match.

For Dinamo Zagreb the question was the chance to win the league, 56.1% going in: 60.5% after a win, 54.6% after a draw, 50.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 60.5%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our HNL season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.