FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske Superliga prediction & result
Final score: FC Midtjylland 2-2 Sonderjyske.
Before kick-off the model made it 71% FC Midtjylland, 17% draw, 12% Sonderjyske — fair odds of 1.41, 5.88 and 8.33.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Midtjylland at 71%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30O. EjeheriG
- 2A. MaxsøD
- 4O. DiaoD
- 22M. BechD
- 27S. JohannesenM
- 8P. BillingM
- 19P. BravoM
- 55V. Bak JensenM
- 29K. WätjenM
- 9M. RajovićF
- 90F. EtimF
- 15B. Dje Bi DjeD
- 21D. CastilloM
- 10Cho Gue-SungF
- 20Hong Hyun-SeokM
- 18S. IheanachoF
- 5R. KristensenD
- 60M. UgbohG
- 17M. UhreF
- 38J. EmefileM
- 16M. BundgaardG
- 3A. MunksgaardD
- 12M. SoulasD
- 21S. VelkovD
- 19P. KristensenD
- 17A. HoegM
- 10M. OlesenM
- 7S. EminiM
- 8M. HaidaraF
- 11O. De RosarioF
- 28A. PedersenF
- 14T. HaltvikM
- 9M. HoppeF
- 20T. KlysnerD
- 22A. OggesenM
- 24N. ShintonG
- 26B. TambedouF
- 6R. VinderslevM
- 33J. ChristensenM
- 25B. BjarnasonD
Form going into FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske
FC Midtjylland
Superliga
- W3-2away to FC Nordsjaelland1 November 2026
- W3-2Lyngby25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Viborg19 October 2026
- W2-1FC Copenhagen11 October 2026
Sonderjyske
Superliga
- L0-2FC Copenhagen2 November 2026
- L1-5away to AC Horsens25 October 2026
- W4-0Silkeborg18 October 2026
- L0-3away to Aarhus12 October 2026
What these results say
- FC Midtjylland won every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- FC Midtjylland conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Sonderjyske failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Sonderjyske conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sonderjyske had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 29 | 17 | +12 | 32 |
| 12 | Sonderjyske | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske
- 26 July 2026Sonderjyske 2–3 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 23 April 2026Sonderjyske 1–2 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 4 April 2026FC Midtjylland 2–2 SonderjyskeSuperliga
- 9 January 2026Sonderjyske 3–6 FC MidtjyllandFriendlies Clubs
- 23 November 2025Sonderjyske 2–1 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
- 28 July 2025FC Midtjylland 6–2 SonderjyskeSuperliga
Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske
FC Midtjylland
GoalsAssists
- F. Etim63
Sonderjyske
GoalsAssists
- M. Haidara50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FC Midtjylland and Sonderjyske drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Midtjylland at 71% and given a draw 17%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Anders Bergholt 2' for Sonderjyske, Maxime Soulas (own goal) 24' for FC Midtjylland, Anders Bergholt 56' for Sonderjyske, Sofus Johannesen 78' for FC Midtjylland. On expected goals it finished 2.87–1.08.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Midtjylland a 65.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 69.5% after a win, 58.1% after a draw, 49.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 58.1%, 7.7 points lower than before the match.
For Sonderjyske the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 82.5% going in: 70.5% after a win, 79.5% after a draw, 84.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 79.5%, 3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on FC Midtjylland v Sonderjyske has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 67% / 19% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 71% / 17% / 12%: the biggest move is FC Midtjylland's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- FC Midtjylland win71%▲ +4
- Draw17%▼ −2
- Sonderjyske win12%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.