Aarhus vs Odense Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Aarhus 2-2 Odense.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Aarhus, 18% draw, 15% Odense — fair odds of 1.49, 5.56 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aarhus at 67% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aarhus vs Odense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21Mads HedenstadG
- 26Jacob AndersenD
- 44Mouhammade CamaraD
- 19Eric KahlD
- 11Gift LinksM
- 4Magnus KnudsenM
- 7Markus SolbakkenM
- 39Frederik EmmeryM
- 8Sebastian JørgensenF
- 31Tobias BechF
- 28James BogereF
- 33Luka CalløD
- 29Rasmus CarstensenD
- 10Kristian ArnstadM
- 13Janni SerraF
- 14Tobias MølgaardD
- 1Jesper HansenG
- 23Mikael AndersonM
- 16Jens JønssonM
- 27Stefen TchamcheF
- 16Viljar MyhraG
- 2Peter TherkildsenD
- 13Julius Berthel AskouD
- 29James GomezD
- 15Marcus McCoyD
- 22Ismahila OuédraogoM
- 8Rasmus FalkM
- 14Christian GammelgaardM
- 7Fiete ArpM
- 9Topi KeskinenM
- 17Noah GanausF
- 31Jay-Roy GrotF
- 18Alexander Ahl HolmstromF
- 5Ulrik JenssenD
- 3Adam SørensenD
- 6Jacob BondeM
- 1Martin HansenG
- 19Nikolaj Juul-SandbergM
- 40Noah LassenM
- 21Vitus FriisM
Form going into Aarhus vs Odense
Aarhus
- L1-3away to Benfica20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Viborg14 August 2026
- L0-4away to Sabah FA11 August 2026
- W2-1Sabah FA5 August 2026
- D2-2away to Lyngby1 August 2026
Odense
- L1-2AC Horsens16 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Aarhus | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 4 |
| 8 | Odense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Odense
- 23 August 2026Aarhus 2–2 OdenseSuperliga
- 9 February 2026Aarhus 2–1 OdenseSuperliga
- 14 December 2025Aarhus 3–1 OdenseDBU Pokalen
- 11 December 2025Odense 1–0 AarhusDBU Pokalen
- 18 August 2025Odense 1–5 AarhusSuperliga
- 16 January 2025Aarhus 4–1 OdenseFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Aarhus and Odense
Aarhus
- J. Serra3 goals
Odense
No player in Superliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.