23 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 HNL prediction & result

Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka
Full time3 – 2

Final score: HNK Rijeka 3-2 Istra 1961.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% HNK Rijeka, 27% draw, 24% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HNK Rijeka at 49% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Nasraoui (OG)
18'
•Toni Fruk
42'
⚽Jakov Puljić (pen)
43'
⚽J. Puljic
43'
⚽T. Frukassist: T. Dantas
53'
🔁I. Cubelicout: A. Gojak
60'
🔁S. Vignatoout: B. Pavic
60'
61'
🔁A. Kadusicout: R. Hrvatin
61'
🔁D. Doumbiaout: G. Albarracin
61'
🔁N. Skafar Zuzicout: V. Rozic
62'
Hamza Jaganjac
71'
⚽H. Jaganjac
🔁A. Husicout: A. Barco
72'
🔁J. Puljicout: D. Adu Adjei
72'
72'
🔁A. Mauricout: D. Ahmeti
78'
🔁I. Saranicout: M. Kablar
🔁N. Jankovicout: M. Devetak
84'
90'
⚽E. Frederiksenassist: D. Ahmeti

Match stats — HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961

59%Possession41%
14Shots11
8On target3
6Corners4
1.95xG1.19

Goals against chances

HNK Rijeka3 from 1.95 xGmore than the chances were worth
Istra 19612 from 1.19 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
  • 99A. TodorovicG
  • 22A. OrecD
  • 45A. MajstorovicD
  • 51A. HusicD
  • 23J. LasickasD
  • 8I. CubelicM
  • 26T. DantasM
  • 19S. VignatoM
  • 10T. FrukM
  • 4N. JankovicM
  • 21J. PuljicF
Substitutes
  • 13I. VekicG
  • 1V. KovacG
  • 34M. DevetakD
  • 3M. ZivkovicD
  • 91N. BodeticD
  • 14A. GojakM
  • 6B. PavicM
  • 5A. BarcoM
  • 7Y. KabadayiF
Coach: Matjaz Kek
Istra 1961 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. KolicG
  • 97A. KadusicD
  • 3M. NasraouiD
  • 4R. KumarD
  • 13N. SepicD
  • 88D. DoumbiaM
  • 8A. MauricM
  • 22E. FrederiksenM
  • 80I. SaranicM
  • 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
  • 94H. JaganjacF
Substitutes
  • 40J. Paus-KunstG
  • 16S. MiettinenD
  • 24F. TarabaD
  • 44R. HrvatinD
  • 20D. AhmetiM
  • 25G. AlbarracinM
  • 34M. KablarM
  • 9IsaacF
  • 27D. CelijaF
Coach: Javi Cabello

Form going into HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961

HNK Rijeka

  • L0-2away to NK Varazdin16 August 2026

Istra 1961

  • W3-0NK Slaven Belupo15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5HNK Rijeka6321107+311
6Istra 196172321412+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961

  • 23 August 2026HNK Rijeka 3–2 Istra 1961HNL
  • 17 May 2026Istra 1961 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 15 March 2026HNK Rijeka 0–2 Istra 1961HNL
  • 20 January 2026Istra 1961 1–2 HNK RijekaHNL
  • 27 September 2025HNK Rijeka 0–0 Istra 1961HNL
  • 19 April 2025Istra 1961 2–0 HNK RijekaHNL

Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and Istra 1961

HNK Rijeka

  • D. Adu-Adjei3 goals1 assists
  • T. Fruk2 goals3 assists

Istra 1961

  • E. Frederiksen7 goals2 assists
  • H. Jaganjac4 goals1 assists
  • D. Ahmeti2 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.