HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 4-0 NK Osijek.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% HNK Hajduk Split, 23% draw, 35% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.38, 4.35 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33T. SilicG
- 38L. HodakD
- 3R. GabricD
- 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
- 17D. MelnjakD
- 20A. del MoralM
- 4A. PajazitiM
- 16A. SutaloM
- 19E. BrrutiM
- 26A. HuramM
- 10M. LivajaF
- 44D. StipicaG
- 1I. IvusicG
- 32S. HrgovicD
- 14R. RaciD
- 15D. MaresicD
- 36M. SkelinD
- 21R. PukstasM
- 11M. SegoF
- 7A. SanyangF
- 31M. MalenicaG
- 77S. MustaficD
- 49I. KolarikD
- 26L. JelenicD
- 22R. JurisicD
- 23L. VrbancicM
- 39D. BukvicM
- 8S. MikolcicM
- 11N. OmerovicM
- 79A. LeonF
- 17A. JakupovicM
- 1N. CurcijaG
- 2M. HeisterD
- 33E. HasicD
- 24L. PosavecD
- 47D. KalemD
- 67B. BaktiM
- 16O. PetrusenkoM
- 18N. FarkasM
- 7I. DolcekF
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek
HNK Hajduk Split
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
NK Osijek
- W1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb15 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
| 2 | NK Osijek | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Osijek
- 23 August 2026HNK Hajduk Split 4–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 21 April 2026HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 15 February 2026NK Osijek 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 8 November 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 24 August 2025NK Osijek 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 27 April 2025NK Osijek 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and NK Osijek
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists
NK Osijek
- A. León5 goals1 assists
- N. Omerović5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.