25 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Aarhus vs Viborg Superliga prediction & result

Vejlby Stadion, Aarhus
Referee: Mikkel Redder
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Aarhus 2-1 Viborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Aarhus, 27% draw, 33% Viborg — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aarhus at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aarhus96%Draw4%Viborg0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Frederik Emmeryassist: James Bogere
8'
Kristian Arnstad
26'
🔁Frederik Tingagerout: Eric Kahl
45'
⚽Tobias Bech Kristensenassist: Jacob Andersen
56'
63'
🔁Ruben Kristensen Alteout: Philip Keller
63'
🔁Hjalte Bidstrupout: Daniel Anyembe
Frederik Emmery
66'
🔁Frederik Emmeryout: Gift Links
71'
72'
•Charly Ngos Nouck Horneman
🔁Callum McCowattout: Sebastian Jorgensen
77'
🔁James Bogereout: Stefen Tchamche
77'
77'
🔁Mads Søndergaard Clausenout: Giulio Gabriel
78'
🔁Jeppe Grønningout: Frederik Damkjer
Magnus Knudsen
79'
81'
⚽Giulio Gabriel
85'
🔁Dorian Hanzaout: Adam Kleis-Kristoffersen
🔁Magnus Knudsenout: Markus Solbakken
86'
89'
Daniel Anyembe
Markus Solbakken
90'
90+3'
Philip Keller
90+4'
Giulio Gabriel

Match stats — Aarhus vs Viborg

53%Possession47%
20Shots12
4On target5
10Corners3
2.18xG0.85

Goals against chances

Aarhus2 from 2.18 xGabout what the chances were worth
Viborg1 from 0.85 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aarhus 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. HansenG
  • 14T. MølgaardD
  • 5F. TingagerD
  • 3D. GrétarssonD
  • 26J. AndersenM
  • 4M. KnudsenM
  • 10Kristian Fredrik Malt ArnstadM
  • 39Frederik EmmeryM
  • 31T. BechM
  • 18C. McCowattM
  • 28J. BogereF
Substitutes
  • 27S. TchamcheF
  • 29R. CarstensenD
  • 21M. Hedenstad ChristiansenG
  • 16J. JønssonM
  • 8S. JørgensenM
  • 19E. KahlD
  • 11G. LinksM
  • 25C. RöslerD
  • 7M. SolbakkenM
Coach: J. Poulsen
Viborg 4-4-2
  • 20K. KiilerichG
  • 26Hjalte BidstrupD
  • 4L. KirkegaardD
  • 5Ž. ZaletelD
  • 23O. BundgaardD
  • 18R. AlteM
  • 8A. BeckM
  • 13J. GrønningM
  • 6M. SøndergaardM
  • 19Dorian HanzaF
  • 11C. NouckF
Substitutes
  • 36Adam Kleis-KristoffersenF
  • 3V. Lunddal FriðrikssonD
  • 1L. LundG
  • 24D. AnyembeD
  • 38E. MonradD
  • 33Frederik DamkjerM
  • 28L. CoulibalyM
  • 25GiulioF
  • 34Philip KellerM
Coach: Nickolai Lund

Form going into Aarhus vs Viborg

Aarhus

Superliga

  • D1-1away to FC Copenhagen18 October 2026
  • W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026

Viborg

Superliga

  • L1-2FC Midtjylland19 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Randers FC11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Aarhus143651921-215
3Viborg148242213+926

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aarhus vs Viborg

  • 14 August 2026Viborg 2–1 AarhusSuperliga
  • 27 June 2026Aarhus 1–1 ViborgFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 May 2026Aarhus 6–2 ViborgSuperliga
  • 6 April 2026Viborg 1–2 AarhusSuperliga
  • 22 February 2026Aarhus 5–2 ViborgSuperliga
  • 14 September 2025Viborg 1–2 AarhusSuperliga

Leading scorers: Aarhus and Viborg

Aarhus

GoalsAssists

  • J. Serra50

Viborg

GoalsAssists

  • Dorian Hanza61
  • M. Søndergaard43
  • C. Nouck33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aarhus beat Viborg 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Aarhus at 40%. The goals: Frederik Emmery 8' for Aarhus, Tobias Bech Kristensen 56' for Aarhus, Giulio Gabriel 81' for Viborg. On expected goals it finished 2.18–0.85.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aarhus a 36.0% chance to finish in the top six: 44.9% after a win, 33.1% after a draw, 25.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.9%, 8.9 points higher than before the match.

For Viborg the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 96.1% going in: 98.5% after a win, 97.5% after a draw, 94.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.2%, 1.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Aarhus v Viborg has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 38% / 26% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Viborg's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Aarhus win40%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Viborg win33%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.