25 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby Superliga prediction & result

MCH Arena, Herning
Referee: Jakob Kehlet
Full time3 – 2

Final score: FC Midtjylland 3-2 Lyngby.

Before kick-off the model made it 72% FC Midtjylland, 16% draw, 12% Lyngby — fair odds of 1.39, 6.25 and 8.33.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Midtjylland at 72%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Midtjylland97%Draw3%Lyngby0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Cho Gue-sung
17'
32'
⚽Simon Colynassist: Lauge Sandgrav
Andreas Maxsø
45+1'
⚽Philip Billing (pen)
45+4'
🔁Victor Bak Jensenout: Julius Emefile
45'
⚽Friday Etimassist: Kjell-Arik Wätjen
48'
🔁Cho Gue-sungout: Stanley Iheanacho
59'
72'
🔁Frederik Gytkjærout: Markus Adeniyi Anderson Adedeji
72'
🔁Simon Colynout: William Steindorsson
🔁Friday Etimout: Beni Junior
73'
🔁Philip Billingout: Hong Hyun-Seok
73'
84'
🔁Mathias Hebo Rasmussenout: Zidan Sertdemir
84'
🔁Jens Thomasenout: Oliver Højer
🔁Kjell-Arik Wätjenout: Joseph Avwerosuoghene Okuaghare
86'
89'
⚽Gustav Leone Fraulo
90'
🔁Gustav Leone Frauloout: Sanders Ngabo

Match stats — FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby

52%Possession48%
19Shots12
7On target5
5Corners2
2.47xG0.74

Goals against chances

FC Midtjylland3 from 2.47 xGmore than the chances were worth
Lyngby2 from 0.74 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Midtjylland 3-1-4-2
  • 25N. BakkerG
  • 4O. DiaoD
  • 2A. MaxsøD
  • 22M. BechD
  • 8P. BillingM
  • 5R. KristensenM
  • 29K. WätjenM
  • 27S. JohannesenM
  • 55V. Bak JensenM
  • 90F. EtimF
  • 10Cho Gue-SungF
Substitutes
  • 39Joseph Avwerosuoghene OkuaghareM
  • 30O. EjeheriG
  • 38J. EmefileM
  • 20Hong Hyun-SeokM
  • 18S. IheanachoF
  • 15B. Dje Bi DjeD
  • 98D. MartínezF
  • 9M. RajovićF
  • 17M. UhreF
Coach: M. Tullberg
Lyngby 4-4-2
  • 31D. KochenG
  • 2O. BuurD
  • 30M. FischerD
  • 12David Helgi AronssonD
  • 25R. TytensD
  • 19G. FrauloM
  • 8M. HeboM
  • 18J. ThomasenM
  • 14L. SandgravM
  • 26F. GytkjærF
  • 7S. ColynF
Substitutes
  • 4C. AllenD
  • 35M. AndersonF
  • 5Oliver HøjerM
  • 6D. KristjánssonD
  • 22S. NgaboM
  • 16Z. SertdemirM
  • 17W. SteindorssonM
  • 1J. ÆgidiusG
  • 32Mikkel VernonD
Coach: Mikkel Jespersen

Form going into FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby

FC Midtjylland

Superliga

  • W2-1away to Viborg19 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Copenhagen11 October 2026

Lyngby

Superliga

  • D3-3FC Nordsjaelland18 October 2026
  • L2-5away to Brondby11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Midtjylland149502917+1232
10Lyngby142571929-1011

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Midtjylland vs Lyngby

  • 16 August 2026Lyngby 1–1 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
  • 16 February 2025FC Midtjylland 1–0 LyngbySuperliga
  • 16 August 2024Lyngby 1–2 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
  • 27 October 2023FC Midtjylland 2–1 LyngbySuperliga
  • 6 August 2023Lyngby 4–1 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga
  • 7 May 2023Lyngby 2–1 FC MidtjyllandSuperliga

Leading scorers: FC Midtjylland and Lyngby

FC Midtjylland

GoalsAssists

  • F. Etim63

Lyngby

GoalsAssists

  • S. Colyn53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Midtjylland beat Lyngby 3–2. The model had made a win for FC Midtjylland its most likely outcome, at 72%, so the call held; the score it named was 3–0. The goals: Cho Gue-sung 17' for FC Midtjylland, Simon Colyn 32' for Lyngby, Philip Billing (penalty) 45+4' for FC Midtjylland, Friday Etim 48' for FC Midtjylland, Gustav Leone Fraulo 89' for Lyngby. On expected goals it finished 2.47–0.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Midtjylland a 53.6% chance to finish top of the regular season: 56.3% after a win, 47.2% after a draw, 39.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 56.3%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

For Lyngby the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 75.5% going in: 60.0% after a win, 71.7% after a draw, 78.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 78.1%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Midtjylland v Lyngby has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 66% / 20% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 72% / 16% / 12%: the biggest move is FC Midtjylland's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. FC Midtjylland win72%▲ +6
  2. Draw16%▼ −4
  3. Lyngby win12%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.