25 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske Superliga prediction & result

Hybel Arena Horsens, Horsens
Referee: Jacob A Sundberg
Full time5 – 1

Final score: AC Horsens 5-1 Sonderjyske.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% AC Horsens, 24% draw, 29% Sonderjyske — fair odds of 2.13, 4.17 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AC Horsens at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AC Horsens99%Draw1%Sonderjyske0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alagie Saine
7'
⚽Kingsley Bimpongassist: Yamirou Ouorou
12'
⚽Julius Madsenassist: Yamirou Ouorou
27'
30'
⚽Osaze De Rosarioassist: Pachanga Cassoma Kristensen
Kingsley Bimpong
43'
⚽Julius Madsenassist: Victor Pálsson
45+3'
45'
🔁Pachanga Cassoma Kristensenout: Brynjar Ingi Bjarnason
Adam Herdonsson
59'
65'
Mohamed Cherif
⚽Kingsley Bimpong
66'
74'
🔁Anders Bergholtout: Teodor Berg Haltvik
74'
🔁Jacob Christensenout: Andreas Oggesen
🔁Kingsley Bimpongout: John Batigi
77'
81'
🔁Mohamed Cherifout: Enis Zeqiri
🔁Victor Pálssonout: Seniko Doua
82'
🔁Karlo Lusavecout: Abdul Moro
82'
🔁Julius Madsenout: Jimi Tauriainen
86'
🔁Kelvin Ehibhatiomhanout: Fallou Sene
86'
86'
🔁Ismaïl Seydiout: Bubacarr Tambedou
⚽John Batigiassist: Adam Herdonsson
90+2'

Match stats — AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske

47%Possession53%
17Shots19
7On target6
2Corners4
3.85xG1.39

Goals against chances

AC Horsens5 from 3.85 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sonderjyske1 from 1.39 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

AC Horsens 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. DelačG
  • 26V. PálssonD
  • 28A. SaineD
  • 6J. BondeD
  • 7I. MiličevićD
  • 17A. HerdonssonM
  • 20K. LusavecM
  • 41Kingsley BimpongM
  • 14J. MadsenM
  • 27Y. OuorouM
  • 11K. EhibhatiomhanF
Substitutes
  • 5A. BruusD
  • 23D. SmarschG
  • 19Jimi Weikko TauriainenM
  • 25Fallou SeneF
  • 22J. BatigiF
  • 35M. KupijbidaD
  • 30S. DouaD
  • 16A. MoroM
  • 15A. JustinussenF
Coach: Niki Zimling
Sonderjyske 3-4-2-1
  • 24N. ShintonG
  • 12M. SoulasD
  • 21S. VelkovD
  • 19P. KristensenD
  • 3A. MunksgaardM
  • 33J. ChristensenM
  • 10M. OlesenM
  • 28A. PedersenM
  • 31I. SeydiM
  • 8M. HaidaraM
  • 11O. De RosarioF
Substitutes
  • 26B. TambedouF
  • 14T. HaltvikM
  • 25B. BjarnasonD
  • 30G. WagnerD
  • 1N. FløG
  • 9M. HoppeF
  • 18O. KhattarF
  • 22A. OggesenM
  • 34Enis ZeqiriM
Coach: Fatah Abdirahman

Form going into AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske

AC Horsens

Superliga

  • D0-0Randers FC16 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Silkeborg11 October 2026

Sonderjyske

Superliga

  • W4-0Silkeborg18 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Aarhus12 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Superliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7AC Horsens144462323016
12Sonderjyske142391933-149

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AC Horsens vs Sonderjyske

  • 6 September 2026Sonderjyske 2–5 AC HorsensSuperliga
  • 9 March 2024AC Horsens 1–4 Sonderjyske1. Division
  • 12 August 2023Sonderjyske 5–0 AC Horsens1. Division
  • 9 August 2023AC Horsens 1–2 SonderjyskeDBU Pokalen
  • 20 May 2021AC Horsens 1–2 SonderjyskeSuperliga
  • 11 April 2021Sonderjyske 2–3 AC HorsensSuperliga

Leading scorers: AC Horsens and Sonderjyske

AC Horsens

GoalsAssists

  • K. Ehibhatiomhan40

Sonderjyske

GoalsAssists

  • M. Haidara50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AC Horsens beat Sonderjyske 5–1. The model had made a win for AC Horsens its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Kingsley Bimpong 12' for AC Horsens, Julius Madsen 27' for AC Horsens, Osaze De Rosario 30' for Sonderjyske, Julius Madsen 45+3' for AC Horsens, Kingsley Bimpong 66' for AC Horsens, John Batigi 90+2' for AC Horsens. On expected goals it finished 3.85–1.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AC Horsens a 40.5% chance to finish in the top six: 50.9% after a win, 34.3% after a draw, 28.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 50.9%, 10.4 points higher than before the match.

For Sonderjyske the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 59.6% going in: 46.9% after a win, 59.8% after a draw, 67.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.8%, 8.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AC Horsens v Sonderjyske has moved

First published on 11 Oct at 51% / 22% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 47% / 24% / 29%: the biggest move is AC Horsens's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. AC Horsens win47%▼ −4
  2. Draw24%▲ +2
  3. Sonderjyske win29%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.