Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland Superliga prediction & result
Final score: Silkeborg 1-1 FC Nordsjaelland.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Silkeborg, 25% draw, 47% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Nordsjaelland at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. AndrésenG
- 24A. MadsenD
- 3R. ØstrømD
- 6M. de GevigneyD
- 36J. NielsenM
- 27W. KirkM
- 20M. LarsenM
- 19J. GammelbyM
- 21L. RiisgaardM
- 10K. KirkegaardM
- 11O. RossF
- 2A. PoulsenD
- 23M. HansenF
- 26M. ØxenbergM
- 22R. Al HajjM
- 14S. BergerM
- 42Kristian Bloch BøgildF
- 30T. MikkelsenG
- 33M. FreundlichM
- 4Pedro GanchasD
- 13A. HansenG
- 15S. AcquahD
- 3T. SalquistD
- 4Noah MarkmannD
- 23R. NorheimM
- 18Justin JanssenM
- 6M. BrinkM
- 5J. LähteenmäkiM
- 40H. Boe RasmussenF
- 11A. LindF
- 14Ibrahim AdelF
- 28M. WalkerD
- 10P. AmoakoF
- 29V. BerthelsenM
- 16J. BuskG
- 8N. RøjkjærM
- 37Lamine SadioM
- 9O. SolbakkenF
- 2P. AnkersenD
- 21M. HeydeM
Form going into Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland
Silkeborg
Superliga
- L0-4away to Sonderjyske18 October 2026
- D3-3AC Horsens11 October 2026
FC Nordsjaelland
Superliga
- D3-3away to Lyngby18 October 2026
- D0-0Odense9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Silkeborg | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 15 |
| 4 | FC Nordsjaelland | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Silkeborg vs FC Nordsjaelland
- 16 August 2026FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 7 December 2025FC Nordsjaelland 5–0 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 10 August 2025Silkeborg 4–2 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 20 October 2024FC Nordsjaelland 1–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
- 18 August 2024Silkeborg 4–1 FC NordsjaellandSuperliga
- 12 May 2024FC Nordsjaelland 4–1 SilkeborgSuperliga
Leading scorers: Silkeborg and FC Nordsjaelland
Silkeborg
GoalsAssists
- O. Ross72
FC Nordsjaelland
GoalsAssists
- A. Lind63
- Ibrahim Adel43
- H. Boe Rasmussen42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Silkeborg and FC Nordsjaelland drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Nordsjaelland at 47% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Oliver Ross 38' for Silkeborg, Alexander Lind 55' for FC Nordsjaelland. On expected goals it finished 0.66–0.87.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Silkeborg a 42.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.4% after a win, 42.3% after a draw, 50.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 42.3%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
For FC Nordsjaelland the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 95.1% going in: 98.0% after a win, 94.4% after a draw, 91.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 94.4%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Superliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Silkeborg v FC Nordsjaelland has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 29% / 27% / 44% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 28% / 25% / 47%: the biggest move is FC Nordsjaelland's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Silkeborg win28%▼ −1
- Draw25%▼ −2
- FC Nordsjaelland win47%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.